上海写字楼市场收益与风险的实证研究

发布时间：2018-02-02 05:50

本文关键词： 上海写字楼市场收益风险实证研究　出处：《复旦大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文一共分为六章,第一章介绍了本文的假设：1.写字楼的销售价格的增值是写字楼投资的主要收益,2.衡量写字楼投资收益时忽略所有的交易费用和税费。第二章是文献综述,首先回顾了与写字楼的投资收益和风险相关的理论。房地产市场的回报率取决于需求,供给和通货膨胀。影响写字楼需求的因素有宏观经济走势,就业形势尤其是那些占据写字楼最多的行业的就业形势,进出口总额。写字楼的供应受如下三个因素的影响：写字楼的建造成本,开发商的获取资本的成本和写字楼市场的长期增长趋势。在中国,政策风险是房地产投资者面临的最大的风险之一,它是由国家或地方政府的法律或法规的变更而引起的。政策风险主要源自于货币政策,经济体制,土地使用制度,产业政策,住房制度,施工安全法规的改革或变更引起的。第三章是研究过程引用的理论介绍。第四章是本文最核心的实证研究。将二三部分的理论应用于上海市2006年第一季度至2013年第二季度的写字楼价格的实证分析上。首先,本文将建立并检验一个关于上海写字楼市场价格的模型用于探索广义货币供应量(M2反应了一个国家的宏观经济和货币政策),上海市进出口总额,上海市写字楼供应对上海市写字楼价格的影响。其次,本文将建立并检验一个关于上海写字楼市场的销售额的模型以探索M2,上海市进出口总额,上海写字楼的供应,上海写字楼市场供应过剩对写字楼的销售额的影响。接着,由于缺乏足够的数据来进行回归,本文将通过计算通货膨胀和上海写字楼市场的价格升值之间的相关性来分析上海写字楼价格和通货膨胀之间的关系,同时通过计算建筑成本及上海写字楼的供应之间的相关性来分析上海写字楼供应量与建筑成本之间的关系。最后,本文将计算方差上海写字楼市场的价格升值和相关的上海安防市场指数回报率的方差来比较在上海的写字楼投资及证券投资的风险和回报的相关性。第五章总结了投资于上海写字楼市场时需要注意的所有税收实务和政策风险。第六章总结了在实证研究中得到的结果：从这项研究中,首先我们知道,在这段时间里因M2的增加而增加的需求大于相应增加的供给。如果M2每增长一亿元人民币,上海写字楼市场的平均价格将增加0.175元/每平方米。其次,上海写字楼市场的价格受供应的变化不显著。第三,M2增加量的0.06%流入上海写字楼市场。接下来,投资者只愿意为每增加的一平方米写字楼供应支付16528.287元。然后供给和供给过剩不是高度线性相关。金融业和政府的就业和租赁面积是在上海几乎完全的线性相关。
[Abstract]:This paper is divided into six chapters. The first chapter introduces the hypothesis of this paper: 1. The increase in sales price of office buildings is the main income of office investment. 2.When measuring the return on investment in office buildings, all transaction costs and taxes are ignored. The second chapter is a literature review. Firstly, it reviews the theories related to the investment returns and risks of office buildings. The return rate of real estate market depends on demand, supply and inflation. The factors affecting office demand are macroeconomic trend. The employment situation is especially that of the industries that occupy the most office space, the total volume of imports and exports. The supply of office space is affected by three factors: the construction cost of office buildings. The cost of acquiring capital for developers and the long-term growth trend of the office market. In China, policy risk is one of the biggest risks faced by real estate investors. It is caused by the change of laws or regulations of national or local government. The policy risk is mainly derived from monetary policy, economic system, land use system, industrial policy, housing system. The third chapter is the introduction of the theory cited in the research process. Chapter 4th is the core empirical study in this paper. The second and third parts of the theory are applied in in the first quarter of 2006 in shanghai. To in the second quarter of 2013 office price empirical analysis. First. In this paper, a model about the market price of office buildings in Shanghai is established and tested to explore the broad money supply (M 2), which reflects the macroeconomic and monetary policy of a country, and the total import and export of Shanghai. Secondly, this paper will establish and test a sales model of Shanghai office market to explore the total import and export volume of M2 and Shanghai. The supply of office space in Shanghai, the impact of excess supply in the Shanghai office market on office sales. Then, due to a lack of sufficient data to return. This paper will analyze the relationship between Shanghai office price and inflation by calculating the correlation between inflation and the price appreciation of Shanghai office market. At the same time, by calculating the relationship between the building cost and the supply of office buildings in Shanghai, this paper analyzes the relationship between the supply of office buildings in Shanghai and the construction costs. This paper will calculate the variance of the price appreciation of Shanghai office market and the variance of relative Shanghai security market index return rate to compare the correlation between the risk and return of office building investment and securities investment in Shanghai. Chapter 5th. Chapter 6th summarizes the results of empirical research. From this study. First of all, we know that the increase in demand due to the increase in M2 during this period is greater than the corresponding increase in supply. The average price of the Shanghai office market will increase by 0.175 yuan per square meter. Second, the price of the Shanghai office space market will not change significantly by the supply. Third. M2 increase of 0.06% into the Shanghai office market. Investors are only willing to pay 16528.287 yuan for each additional square metre of office space. Then supply and oversupply are not highly linear. The employment and rental areas of the financial industry and the government are in Shanghai. Almost complete linear correlation.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23;F272.3

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