中国城镇住房市场是否存在需求缺口——基于省级面板数据的检验

发布时间：2018-02-10 13:33

本文关键词： 住房市场需求缺口区域差异　出处：《兰州学刊》2017年09期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：文章对中国30个省份按供需比指标进行区域划分,从"住房需求取决于相对价格和人均可支配收入、住房供给取决于相对价格和土地成本"的角度出发,估计了中国城镇住房需求与供给方程;并结合预期调整方法分析了中国城镇住房市场的需求状况。实证结果表明:1、需求与供给相互作用可以较好地解释中国城镇住房价格。住房价格、住房存量与人均收入、土地成本显著正相关。2、城镇住房的需求价格弹性系数介于-0.8945至-0.6024,供给价格弹性系数介于0.1297至0.2099,供给价格弹性小于需求价格弹性说明需求对价格变动比供给更敏感,表现为中国房地产市场存在需求过剩的局面。中国正处于工业化和城镇化进程中,收入的快速增长和城镇新增人口的急剧膨胀是驱动住房需求增加、房价上涨的核心因素,需求的释放速度快、释放规模大,而供给释放则存在滞后,从而导致中国城镇住房市场存在较大的需求缺口。中国住房供给价格弹性和需求价格弹性存在区域差异,表明政府应根据不同区域市场供需特征,制定更为针对性的房地产市场调控政策。
[Abstract]:In this paper, 30 provinces in China are divided according to the index of supply and demand ratio. From the angle of "housing demand depends on relative price and per capita disposable income, housing supply depends on relative price and land cost". The equation of housing demand and supply in Chinese cities and towns is estimated. The empirical results show that the interaction between demand and supply can explain the housing price, housing price, housing stock and per capita income. The demand price elasticity coefficient of urban housing ranged from -0.8945 to -0.6024, and the supply price elasticity coefficient ranged from 0.1297 to 0.2099. The supply price elasticity was smaller than the demand price elasticity, which indicated that demand was more sensitive to price change than supply. China is in the process of industrialization and urbanization. The rapid growth of income and the sharp expansion of the new urban population are the core factors driving the increase of housing demand and the rise of house prices. The rate of demand release is fast, the release scale is large, and the supply release lags behind, which leads to a large demand gap in China's urban housing market. There are regional differences between the price elasticity of housing supply and the price elasticity of demand in China. It is suggested that the government should formulate more targeted real estate market regulation policies according to the characteristics of supply and demand in different regional markets.
【作者单位】：北京大学经济学院博士后科研流动站;中国信正资产管理股份有限公司博士后科研工作站;
【分类号】：F299.23

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