节能住宅投资决策风险研究

发布时间：2018-02-10 12:00

本文关键词： 节能住宅投资决策风险管理理论多层次模糊综合评价法　出处：《兰州交通大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：伴随着人类社会的不断发展，地球作为人类赖以生存的家园，资源逐渐被消耗，环境逐渐被破坏。据统计：人类从自然界获取资源的50%以上是用来建造各种建筑物及其附属设施的，而建筑物建造、使用、拆除过程中所造成的污染占环境总体污染的34%。这表明，建筑业作为国民经济的支柱产业，已成为污染环境的大户，而住宅建筑又占据了总建筑的2/3，不言而喻，住宅建筑又成为了污染环境、破坏生态平衡的主力军。近二十年来，伴随着节能住宅建筑技术的发展，发达国家充分利用地热能、太阳能和风能等可再生能源，已将住宅建筑的能耗在传统能耗基础上降低了70%～80%；因此，建筑业发展节能建筑，走节能和可持续发展之路，是我国建设资源节约型和环境友好型社会及美丽中国的必由之路。但目前开发商对节能住宅的开发意愿并不强烈。基于此，论文拟从开发商的角度出发，分析影响节能住宅投资决策风险因素，从而找出问题的症结所在并提出相应的对策与建议，以此来推动我国节能住宅市场的可持续发展。本文对我国节能住宅投资决策风险管理问题进行研究，并得出如下结论。首先，通过采用专家调查法和阅读国内外相关文献，识别出节能住宅投资决策风险包括政策风险、管理风险、技术风险和成本风险。政策风险主要有节能技术服务体系设计标准的完善程度，符合市场经济规律的专项节能激励与补贴制度的完善程度，政府关于节能住宅宣传和教育方面政策完善程度，节能投资担保机制的完善程度四方面；管理风险包括从事节能咨询服务的专业队伍数量，管理者节能管理知识的掌握程度，管理机构不健全、监督不到位导致节能项目质量达标情况；技术方面包括门窗节能技术的先进性、可行性和可靠性，外围护结构节能技术的先进性、可行性和可靠性；成本方面包括节能技术、节能产品的投入情况，，成本增加导致消费者的购买率情况。根据识别出的风险因素建立了风险评价的指标体系。其次，通过建立的风险评价指标体系对其进行了风险因素排序和整体风险评价。主要采用专家访谈法和AHP法得出专家对其风险的一个专业打分并计算出风险的权重，然后进行了主次风险的相对应排序，最后采用模糊综合评价法对节能住宅投资决策风险进行了一个整体的评价，得出最后的结果。最后，提出了针对节能住宅投资决策风险的应对措施。针对节能技术风险应该从生产、销售、施工等各个环节严格按标准进行生产和施工，应该增强应用技术理论研究、丰富经验、实验和方法；提高开发商的积极态度，杜绝质次价低的产品。针对节能成本风险方面建议节能一次做到位，让政府、房地产开发商和购房者真正了解节能建筑，使其节能概念延续于建筑的整个生命周期。综上所述，本文的研究，为国内的开发商提供了一个可操作的，具有实际意义节能住宅投资决策风险管理体系，可以帮助开发商在对投资决策风险进行管理的时候，有针对性的提高风险分析评价和风险应对的能力。因此，本文的研究结果对推动国内节能住宅的发展具有一定的指导意义。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of human society, earth is home to human survival, resource depletion, environment is destroyed gradually. According to the statistics: more than 50% human resources from nature is used to build various buildings and ancillary facilities, and building construction, use, the demolition caused by pollution in the process of accounting for the overall pollution of the environment 34%. this shows that the construction industry as a pillar industry of the national economy, has become a major environmental pollution, and residential buildings occupy the total construction of 2/3, it is self-evident, residential construction has become the main force of environmental pollution, destruction of ecological balance. In the past twenty years, with the development of residential building energy-saving technology developed. The country full use of geothermal energy, renewable energy such as solar and wind energy, the energy consumption of residential building is reduced by 70% ~ 80% in the traditional energy consumption on the basis; therefore, the development of the construction industry section Can buildings, energy saving and walk the road of sustainable development, China's construction of a resource-saving and environment-friendly society and the beautiful Chinese. But now the only way which must be passed the developers of energy-efficient residential development will not be strong. Based on this, this thesis from the perspective of developers, effects and analysis of risk factors of residential investment decision-making, so as to find out the problem the crux of the problem and put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions, in order to promote the sustainable development of China's residential market. This paper focuses on the research of investment decision risk management problem of our country's energy saving house, and draws the following conclusions.
First of all, through the expert investigation method and reading related literature at home and abroad, identify residential investment decision-making risk including policy risk, management risk, technology risk and cost risk. The degree of perfection of the policy risk are mainly designed to standard energy-saving technical service system, improve the level of the special energy-saving incentive accords with the law of market economy and government subsidy system. About the residential energy conservation publicity and education policy perfection, such investment guarantee mechanism in four aspects; the risk management includes the number of professionals engaged in energy-saving management consulting services, master degree of energy management knowledge, management mechanism is not perfect, supervision is not in place resulting in the quality standards of energy-saving projects; advanced technology including energy-saving doors and windows the feasibility and reliability of the advanced periphery structure of energy-saving technology, the feasibility and reliability of the form; This aspect includes energy saving technology, the input of energy saving products, and the purchase rate of consumers caused by the increase of cost. According to the identified risk factors, the index system of risk assessment is established.
Secondly, through the risk evaluation index system for the risk factors and the risk assessment of the overall ranking. The main draw a professional experts on the risk and calculate the risk weights by expert interview method and AHP method, the corresponding sorting and then proceed to the primary and secondary risk, at the end of the residential investment decision risk an overall evaluation by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, to obtain the final results.
Finally, put forward the corresponding measures for energy conservation in residential investment decision-making risk. According to the energy saving technology risk should be from the production, sales, construction and other links strictly according to the standard of production and construction, should strengthen theoretical research, application technology and rich experience, experiment and method; improve the positive attitude of the developers, to eliminate the second lowest quality for products. Energy cost risk such a place, let the government, real estate developers and buyers of real understanding of the concept of building energy saving, energy-saving continuation in the construction of the entire life cycle.
In summary, this research, for domestic developers to provide a workable, practical energy-saving residential investment risk management system, can help developers in the investment risk management, to improve the ability of risk analysis evaluation and risk response. Therefore, the results of this study have certain guiding significance to promote the domestic development of energy saving building.

【学位授予单位】：兰州交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

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