贵州省房地产业发展与经济增长关系研究

发布时间：2018-02-26 08:49

本文关键词： 经济增长房地产业关系格兰杰因果关系检验　出处：《贵州财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近几年来,贵州省房地产业规模发展迅速,房地产开发投资在GDP中的比重日趋上升,逐渐成为了贵州省国民经济的重要行业之一。基于该现实背景下,本文主要进行了三方面的研究：第一,梳理房地产业的相关概念和解释房地产业发展与经济增长之间的理论关系。第二,通过对贵州省房地产业相关数据的整理,实证分析目前贵州省房地产业的发展阶段,及与经济增长之间的关系。第三,根据前述理论分析及实证分析的结果,来解释贵州省房地产业的现状并提出相应的政策建议。对于第一个方面,本文首先介绍了房地产的相关概念,中国房地产业的发展阶段并对近几年的房地产调控政策进行分类整理及运用经济学原理来评价相关的调控政策。然后,运用宏观经济学的相关理论假说与理论模型来解释房地产业发展与经济增长之间的关系,在这里将二者的理论关系分为消费,投资,政府收入,房地产价格,房地产景气循环等因素之间的关系分别来进行阐述。对于第二个方面,本文运用计量经济学中的单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验方法,对贵州省房地产开发投资额与经济增长之间的关系和贵州省商品房屋销售额与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证分析,得出的结论为贵州省经济增长是房地产投资开发额的格兰杰原因,反之不成立；而贵州省经济增长与商品房屋销售额二者之间则相互不存在格兰杰因果关系。对于第三个方面,本文理论分析及实证分析的结果符合当前贵州省房地产开发投资规模过度,商品房屋大量空置的现状。政策建议主要是贵州省应继续加快城市化工业化的步伐,重视房地产业与国民经济之间的协调发展,解决收入分配差距过大的问题及注重保障房建设等。本文的创新之处有两点,第一,对近几年国家房地产调控政策进行分类,并运用经济学理论来进行评价；第二,运用经济学理论及计量经济学的分析来说明贵州省当下的房地产业发展状况,并提出了具有时效性的政策建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the scale of real estate industry in Guizhou has developed rapidly, and the proportion of real estate investment in GDP has been rising day by day, which has gradually become one of the important industries in Guizhou's national economy. This article mainly carries on the three aspects research: first, combs the real estate industry related concept and explains the real estate industry development and the economic growth theory relation. Second, through collates the Guizhou Province real estate industry correlation data, Empirical analysis of the current stage of development of the real estate industry in Guizhou Province and the relationship between the real estate industry and economic growth. Third, according to the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis results, to explain the current situation of the real estate industry in Guizhou Province and put forward corresponding policy recommendations. For the first aspect, this paper first introduces the related concepts of real estate, the development stage of real estate industry in China, classifies and arranges the real estate regulation and control policies in recent years and evaluates the relevant regulation and control policies by using economic principles. The relationship between the development of real estate industry and economic growth is explained by using the relevant theoretical hypothesis and theoretical model of macroeconomics. The theoretical relationship between them is divided into consumption, investment, government revenue, real estate price, etc. Real estate boom cycle and other factors to explain the relationship. For the second aspect, we use the unit root test, cointegration test and Granger causality test in econometrics. The relationship between investment in real estate development and economic growth in Guizhou Province and the relationship between sales of commodity houses and economic growth in Guizhou Province are analyzed empirically. The conclusion is that the economic growth of Guizhou province is the Granger reason of the real estate investment and development, whereas the economic growth of Guizhou province and the sales of commodity houses do not exist Granger causality. For the third aspect, the results of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis agree with the excessive scale of investment in real estate development in Guizhou Province. The policy suggestion is that Guizhou Province should continue to speed up the pace of urbanization and industrialization, and attach importance to the coordinated development between the real estate industry and the national economy. Solve the problem that income distribution disparity is too big and pay attention to indemnificatory apartment construction and so on. There are two innovations in this paper. First, it classifies the national real estate regulation and control policies in recent years, and applies the economic theory to evaluate; second, This paper applies the theory of economics and econometrics to explain the current development of real estate industry in Guizhou province, and puts forward some policy suggestions with timeliness.
【学位授予单位】：贵州财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.27;F127

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