房地产市

发布时间：2018-03-03 07:51

本文选题：商品房价格　切入点：居民消费　出处：《武汉金融》2014年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文运用状态空间模型分析了政府房地产市场"去投资化"调控对商品房价格及房地产财富效应的影响。数据显示,调控后房价增幅稳步下降,并在2011年出现明显的下降态势。时变参数估计表明商品房市场的财富效应存在且在调控前后出现显著变化:房地产价格对居民消费和房地产投资的促进作用迅速减弱甚至在部分时期挤出消费,意味着此轮房地产市场"去投资化"调控对平抑房价快速上涨取得了应有成效。2013年楼市价格反弹且消费的财富效应再度显现表明"去投资化"的需求调控并不具备持久性,长期中政府需要配合住房供给的改善,从政府、企业、居民三方面解决房地产市场供给不足的矛盾,实现房地产市场的供求平衡。
[Abstract]:This paper analyzes the effect of "deinvestment" regulation of government real estate market on the real estate price and real estate wealth effect by using the state space model. The time-varying parameter estimation indicates that the wealth effect of the commercial housing market exists and changes significantly before and after regulation: the real estate price promotes the resident consumption and the real estate investment rapidly. Weakening and even squeezing out consumption in part of the time, This means that this round of "deinvestment" regulation in the real estate market has achieved due results in curbing the rapid rise in house prices. In 2013, when property prices rebounded and the wealth effect of consumption re-emerged, it showed that the demand regulation of "deinvestment" was not durable. In the long run, the government should cooperate with the improvement of housing supply, solve the contradiction of insufficient supply of real estate market from three aspects of government, enterprise and resident, and realize the balance of supply and demand of real estate market.
【作者单位】：武汉轻工大学;
【基金】：武汉轻工大学引进人才科研启动资金资助项目(项目编号:2012RS10)
【分类号】：F293.3

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