政府支出、房地产投资与经济增长——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

发布时间：2018-03-04 02:14

本文选题：政府支出　切入点：房地产投资　出处：《工业技术经济》2015年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：现阶段,我国的经济增长是投资拉动的经济增长,忽视了投资过度膨胀的不利影响。本文利用2000~2011年全国31个省区市财政支出、房地产投资和经济增长的有关数据,通过单位根检验和协整检验,建立面板数据模型,以财政支出、房地产投资与经济增长之间的长期稳定关系为研究对象进行实证性分析。研究表明:政府支出与房地产投资对经济增长具有明显的促进作用,政府支出的产出弹性大于房地产投资产出弹性;财政支出与房地产投资对经济增长的影响程度在各个省份之间存在较大的差异。分析结果表明:财政支出和房地产投资的激增导致了经济体中流动性的增加和通胀危险的加剧,而硬化财政预算约束、优化财政支出结构、提高信贷成本、缩小信贷规模是防范这一风险的重要途径。
[Abstract]:At present, the economic growth of our country is investment-driven economic growth, ignoring the adverse effect of excessive expansion of investment. This paper uses the data of fiscal expenditure, real estate investment and economic growth of 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in China from 2000 to 2011. Through the unit root test and cointegration test, the panel data model is established to finance expenditure, The long-term stable relationship between real estate investment and economic growth is analyzed empirically. The research shows that government expenditure and real estate investment can promote economic growth obviously. The output elasticity of government expenditure is greater than that of real estate investment. The impact of fiscal expenditure and real estate investment on economic growth varies greatly among provinces. The results show that the surge of fiscal expenditure and real estate investment leads to increased liquidity and increased risk of inflation in the economy. The important way to prevent this risk is to harden the budgetary constraints, optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure, raise the cost of credit and reduce the scale of credit.
【作者单位】：河北大学;
【分类号】：F812.45;F299.23;F124.1

【参考文献】