中国主要城市房价基本面实证分析

发布时间：2018-03-05 07:45

  本文选题：住宅价格　切入点：基本面　出处：《河北经贸大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：房地产一头联着民生，一头联系经济，是关乎国计民生的重要行业，其对改善居民居住条件和城乡面貌，促进消费、扩大内需、拉动投资，带动建筑、建材等相关产业的发展及社会经济的发展，发挥了重要的作用。但高速的发展同时，隐藏着的问题逐步凸显，在一系列资源配置、经济发展等问题中，最严重的莫过于关乎民生的房价问题。伴随着房地产市场的繁荣发展，与国人福利水平密切相关的住宅价格也在一路高涨，不断冲击大家已经尽量提高的心理预期。使得房价问题越来越成为关注的焦点，受到各方关注，给经济健康发展、社会和谐稳定提出了新的挑战。所以本文目的在于，通过我国房地产业的问题，，找出问题的原因，及提出解决问题的政策建议。 本文首先从影响住宅价格的供需基本面入手，分析相关指标，确定刚性需求、投资需求和基本供给为主线，以人口密度、人均工资、货币供应量、利率水平、土地价格和房屋竣工面积为主要指标，通过2001-2012年中国35个主要城市的相关数据，运用面板数据模型，分析房价影响因素，进而拟合出各个城市的合理房价，并与各市实际房价进行对比分析。并进一步分析与房价增长率密切相关的基本面指标，即CPI、GDP、房租和收入，运用房价增长率与相关指标增长率做比，再借助熵权法确定各增长率比值的权重，用综合指标值来分析、评价房价增长率，从另一侧面佐证和补充我国城市房价问题的现状。 通过两方面实证分析的综合评价，发现我国主要城市房价整体偏高，大多城市在2006年左右出现爆发式增长，一些经济发达城市的实际房价高出拟合房价的50%，一般城市也在25%左右，严重背离基本面，出现房地产过热现象，甚至存在房地产泡沫的风险。且房价过高的主要症结在于投资性需求和土地供给，其深层次的原因在于我国金融领域的内在缺陷，使得大量资金不断涌入市场，但流通环节不畅，资金无法合理、有序融通，只得推高房价，再有就是中央政府制定房价调控政策未形成长效机制，而地方政府为了维护当地经济和地方财政，调控房价积极性不高，未能贯彻实施房价调控政策，致使地价高起、房价难控。文章在最后提出一些合理化政策建议。
[Abstract]:Real estate links people's livelihood and economy. It is an important industry related to the national economy and the people's livelihood. It can improve the living conditions of residents and the outlook of urban and rural areas, promote consumption, expand domestic demand, stimulate investment, and drive construction. The development of building materials and other related industries, as well as the development of social economy, have played an important role. However, with the rapid development, hidden problems have gradually become prominent, in a series of problems such as resource allocation, economic development, etc. The most serious problem is housing prices, which are related to people's livelihood. With the prosperity of the real estate market, housing prices, which are closely related to the welfare level of the people, are also rising. The constant impact on the psychological expectations that everyone has tried to raise has made the issue of house prices more and more the focus of attention. It has brought new challenges to the healthy development of the economy and social harmony and stability. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to, Through the problem of real estate industry in our country, find out the reason of the problem, and put forward the policy suggestion to solve the problem. This paper begins with the supply and demand fundamentals that affect housing prices, analyzes relevant indicators, determines rigid demand, investment demand and basic supply as the main line, taking population density, per capita wage, money supply, interest rate level as the main line. Based on the data of 35 major cities in China from 2001 to 2012, the paper analyzes the influencing factors of house price by using panel data model, and then fits the reasonable housing price of each city. And compared with the actual housing prices in various cities, and further analyzed the fundamental indicators closely related to the growth rate of house prices, that is, CPI GDP, rent and income, and used the rate of house price growth to compare with the growth rate of related indicators. Then the weight of each growth rate is determined by the entropy weight method, and the comprehensive index value is used to analyze and evaluate the housing price growth rate, and the present situation of the urban housing price problem in China is corroborated and supplemented from the other side. Through the comprehensive evaluation of two aspects of empirical analysis, it is found that the housing prices of the major cities in our country are on the high side as a whole, and most cities experienced explosive growth in 2006 or so. The actual housing prices in some economically developed cities are higher than the 50 percent that fit the house prices, and the average city is also around 25%, which seriously deviates from the fundamentals and appears the phenomenon of overheating of real estate. There is even the risk of a real estate bubble. Moreover, the main sticking point of excessive housing prices lies in the investment demand and land supply. The deep reason lies in the inherent defects in the financial field of our country, which makes a large number of funds pour into the market. However, the circulation links are not smooth, the funds cannot be reasonably and orderly financed, so they have to push up the house prices. Another is that the central government has not formed a long-term mechanism for regulating and controlling housing prices. In order to safeguard the local economy and local finance, the local governments have to maintain the local economy and local finance. The enthusiasm of controlling house price is not high and the policy of controlling house price has not been carried out, which leads to the rise of land price and the difficulty of controlling house price. At the end of this paper, some rational policy suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：河北经贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23


本文编号：1569350