基于因子分析的深圳市宝安区房地产泡沫研究

发布时间：2018-03-07 01:16

本文选题：房地产泡沫　切入点：测度　出处：《湖南农业大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：深圳是全国房地产业发展较快的城市之一。进入21世纪以后,深圳关内可开发的土地逐渐减少,房地产开发的重点开始由关内向关外发展。宝安区因其优越的地理位置而颇受开发商的青睐,房价也不断上升,近年来宝安区的房地产开发量已经占全市的80%以上,因此,宝安区是否存在泡沫是值得关注的。在这种背景下,判断深圳市宝安区是否存在泡沫,对制定措施抑制房地产泡沫的产生促进宝安区房地产市场的合理运作具有重要的意义。本文在研究房地产泡沫相关理论知识的基础上,分析了房地产泡沫测度方法的适用性：价格法和统计检验法精确度高,要求数据量大,适用区域较小,指标法应用简单,适用性强,但带有较强主观性。因此,本文运用指标法和因子分析法对2001-2010年的宝安区房地产市场泡沫状况进行测度。研究结果如下： (1)2002年和2009年宝安区存在较为严重的泡沫,但总体而言房地产市场运行较为平稳。 (2)2001-2010年深圳宝安区房地产市场可分为两个阶段,第一个阶段为2001-2005年,第二个阶段为2006-2010年,这两个阶段体现了宝安区房地产泡沫膨胀与萎缩的周期,其变化主要受房地产调控的影响。 (3)宝安区房地产市场对外部影响的抵抗力不强,容易出现较大振动,导致房地产市场的运行失常。基于以上研究结果,本文从土地、金融政策以及税收等六个方面,对保障房地产市场的健康提出了建议。
[Abstract]:Shenzhen is one of the cities with rapid real estate development in China. Since 21th century, the land available for development in Shenzhen has gradually decreased. The focus of real estate development has begun to develop from inside Guan to outside Guan. Baoan District is favored by developers because of its superior geographical location, and house prices are also rising. In recent years, Baoan District has accounted for more than 80% of the city's real estate development, so, Under this background, judging whether there is a bubble in Baoan District of Shenzhen City is of great significance to the establishment of measures to restrain the emergence of real estate bubble and to promote the rational operation of real estate market in Baoan District. On the basis of studying the theory knowledge of real estate bubble, this paper analyzes the applicability of the real estate bubble measurement method: the price method and the statistical test method have high accuracy, large amount of data, small applicable area, and simple application of the index method. Therefore, this paper uses index method and factor analysis method to measure the bubble situation of real estate market in Baoan district from 2001 to 2010. The results are as follows:. In 2002 and 2009, there were more serious bubbles in Baoan district, but overall the real estate market was stable. The real estate market in Baoan District of Shenzhen from 2001 to 2010 can be divided into two stages: the first stage is 2001-2005 and the second stage is 2006-2010. These two phases embody the cycle of real estate bubble expansion and contraction in Baoan District. Its change is mainly affected by real estate regulation and control. 3) the real estate market in Baoan district is not strong against the external influence, and it is easy to vibrate, which leads to the abnormal operation of the real estate market. Based on the above results, this paper puts forward some suggestions to ensure the health of the real estate market from six aspects: land, financial policy and taxation.
【学位授予单位】：湖南农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

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