我国通胀预期的形成机制及管理对策研究

发布时间：2018-03-08 03:36

本文选题：通胀预期　切入点：SVAR模型　出处：《南京财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文首先基于我国央行2001年2季度（2001.03~2001.05）至2012年1季度（2011.12~2012.02）的储户问卷调查，使用C-P概率转换法求得居民通胀预期序列。在对我国居民通胀预期的性质进行检验以后，发现我国居民的通胀预期是不完全理性的。其次，作者使用SVAR模型框架深入研究其影响因素和形成机制，通过脉冲响应图分析了消费价格指数、资产价格、总需求等宏观经济变量以及央行信息披露、实际干预对通胀预期的影响。对于其中的央行信息披露变量。本文研究发现，我国居民通胀预期受消费价格指数以及房地产价格的影响较大，要重点关注这两个指标的变动情况，为管理通胀预期营造一个良好的宏观经济环境；央行信息披露比传统货币政策工具在引导居民预期方面时滞更短，但利率工具对通胀预期的影响程度从长期来看大于信息披露。因此，管理通胀预期时应综合运用信息披露和实际干预，以使通胀预期在短期和长期内都能得到良好锚定。再次，，作者对我国部分年轻居民进行了通胀预期问卷调查，发现日常消费品价格、油价、过去的价格及走势、货币供应量、经济发展水平、房价以及官方的信息披露等是影响通胀预期的重要因素。进一步地，通过对调查数据进行logistic建模，作者发现被调查者的通胀预期高低、通胀预期粘性在人口统计学意义上的异质性并不明显，而央行信任度的性别差异却十分显著。最后，文章有针对性地给出了若干管理通胀预期的对策。例如建立并完善通胀预期的高频监测体系；控制好信贷投放规模，管理好流动性；实行通胀目标制；提高央行信息披露的有效性和声誉等等。
[Abstract]:Based on the questionnaire survey conducted by the Central Bank of China in the second quarter of 2001, 2001.03 / 2001.05) to the first quarter of 2012 (2011.1212 / 2012.02), the C-P probabilistic transformation method is used to obtain the inflation expectation sequence of residents. It is found that the inflation expectations of Chinese residents are not completely rational. Secondly, the author uses the SVAR model framework to study the influencing factors and formation mechanism, and analyzes the macroeconomic variables, such as consumer price index, asset price, aggregate demand, and the information disclosure of the central bank through impulse response graph. The effect of actual intervention on inflation expectation. For the information disclosure variable of central bank, this paper finds that the consumer price index and real estate price influence the inflation expectation of Chinese residents. It is necessary to focus on the changes in these two indicators, so as to create a good macroeconomic environment for managing inflation expectations, and the information disclosure of the central bank has a shorter time lag than the traditional monetary policy tools in guiding residents' expectations. But interest rate instruments have a greater impact on inflation expectations in the long run than information disclosure. Therefore, the management of inflation expectations should be managed with a combination of information disclosure and actual intervention so that inflation expectations can be well anchored in the short and long term. Thirdly, the author conducted a questionnaire survey on inflation expectations among some young residents in China, and found that the prices of daily consumer goods, oil prices, past prices and trends, money supply, economic development level, Housing prices and official information disclosure are important factors affecting inflation expectations. Further, by using the logistic model of the survey data, the author finds that the inflation expectations of the respondents are high or low. The demographic heterogeneity of inflation expectation stickiness is not obvious, but the gender difference of central bank trust is very significant. Finally, the paper puts forward some countermeasures to manage inflation expectation, such as establishing and perfecting the high frequency monitoring system of inflation expectation, controlling the scale of credit, managing the liquidity, implementing inflation target system; Improve the effectiveness and reputation of central bank information disclosure and so on.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822.5

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