促进社会去杠杆的财政政策研究——国际经验和可行性测算

发布时间：2018-03-08 23:06

本文选题：社会去杠杆　切入点：财政可持续性　出处：《经济社会体制比较》2017年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：我国当前的债务形势具有债务规模迅速上升、私人部门债务占比偏大、与房地产相关的债务规模过大三个特点,潜藏风险。文章总结了国际上常用的以财政政策促进私人部门去杠杆的路径和典型经验,并着重分析了美国在本轮金融危机中以财政加杠杆推进社会去杠杆的具体政策。在此基础上,运用跨期预算约束方法,测算我国财政赤字的可持续性,讨论以财政赤字推动社会去杠杆的可行性。实证结果显示,我国政府拥有清偿债务的能力,具备扩大财政赤字以降低社会杠杆率的条件。为此,要在对财政状况进行谨慎评估和校准的基础上,采取定向的财政干预政策,以有效修复私人部门资产负债表,同时发挥各类政策之间的协同作用,实现调控中的成本效益最大化。
[Abstract]:The current debt situation in China has three characteristics: the debt scale is rising rapidly, the proportion of private sector debt is too large, and the debt scale related to real estate is too large. The article summarizes the path and typical experience of promoting private sector deleveraging with fiscal policy. On the basis of the analysis of the specific policies of the United States to promote social deleveraging with fiscal leverage and leverage in this round of financial crisis, the sustainability of China's fiscal deficit is calculated by using the method of intertemporal budget restraint. This paper discusses the feasibility of using fiscal deficit to promote social deleveraging. The empirical results show that our government has the ability to pay off debts and the conditions for enlarging the fiscal deficit to reduce social leverage. On the basis of careful assessment and calibration of the fiscal situation, targeted fiscal intervention policies are needed to effectively rehabilitate private sector balance sheets, while at the same time creating synergies among the various policies, To maximize the cost-benefit in regulation and control.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院财经战略研究院;中央财经大学财政税务学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年项目“增值税收入的税率弹性、福利效应及简并税率结构的模拟分析”(项目编号:71403307);“最低工资与城镇减贫:影响机制与实际效果的微观检验”(项目编号:71403289)
【分类号】：F812.0;F812.5

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