金融因素对房地产价格影响的理论与实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-08 23:27

本文选题：房地产价格　切入点：货币供应量　出处：《山西财经大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：“居者有其屋”这句古语早已揭示住房乃民众的基础性要求。随着1998年房改大幕的拉开,中国房地产产业才开始真正意义上的发展,短短十几年中成就瞩目。房地产业是一个需要多种产业支撑和协助发展的产业,因此涉及庞大的上下游产业,庞大的体系一方面对GDP具有较强的贡献,另一方面也会带来隐患和矛盾。房价关系到百姓日常基础性需求,但房价走势却一直火热,尽管政府一直在不断调控房价,但仍未能有效抑制其火热程度,房价问题越来越被居民所重视。对房价的影响因素中,金融因素不可或缺的首当其冲,本文重点研究金融因素对我国房地产价格的影响。理论方面,选取国内主要金融因素货币供给量、利率,以及国外主要金融因素汇率,分别一一探讨这些因素与房地产价格的定性关系与定量关系。在定性探讨中不仅从微观角度分析这些金融因素如何通过供需力量对房地产价格产生影响,还从宏观角度分析这些因素对房价的影响。在定量分析中,采用时间序列分析方法,对金融因素划分为国内与国际两部分研究,最后在定性和定量分析的基础上,提出建设性意见。结论表明:房价与三个金融因素之间拥有长期并且稳定的关系,三个金融因素对房地产价格均有贡献并且货币供给量的贡献最大。国内实证部分研究发现:货币供应量与贷款利率都是房地产价格波动的格兰杰原因,并且货币供应量与房价成正向关系,五年期以上贷款利率与房价短期呈正向关系,长期呈负向关系。国际因素实证部分研究发现:汇率与房地产价格存在格兰杰关系,人民币升值预期会伴随国际游资流入国内,投入房地产市场,价随之上涨。协整检验表明:国内金融因素与国际金融对房地产价格的影响都具有长期性。主要创新之处:本文考察了多个变量对房地产价格的影响,实证部分划分国内金融市场与国际金融市场,分别选取时间跨度较大的数据,运用了多种检验方法进行验证。讨论金融因素对房地产价格的影响研,可以为国家宏观调控提供参考性依据,对促进国民经济、保持社会稳定具有一定的意义。
[Abstract]:The old saying "Home ownership" has long revealed that housing is the basic requirement of the public. With the opening of the curtain of housing reform in 1998, the real estate industry in China began to develop in a real sense. The real estate industry is an industry that needs a variety of industries to support and assist in development, so it involves a huge upstream and downstream industries. On the one hand, a huge system has a strong contribution to GDP. On the other hand, there will also be hidden dangers and contradictions. Housing prices are related to the basic daily needs of the common people, but the trend of house prices has been hot. Although the government has been constantly regulating and controlling house prices, it has still failed to effectively curb their hot degree. The problem of house price is paid more and more attention to by residents. Among the influencing factors of house price, the financial factor is the most important one. This paper focuses on the influence of financial factor on the real estate price of our country. Select the main domestic financial factors money supply, interest rate, as well as foreign major financial factors exchange rate, The qualitative and quantitative relationships between these factors and real estate prices are discussed respectively. In the qualitative analysis, we not only analyze how these financial factors influence real estate prices through the power of supply and demand, but also analyze how these financial factors influence real estate prices from a micro perspective. In the quantitative analysis, the financial factors are divided into two parts: domestic and international. Finally, on the basis of qualitative and quantitative analysis, The conclusion shows that there is a long-term and stable relationship between house prices and three financial factors. Three financial factors contribute to the real estate price and the money supply is the most important one. The domestic empirical study shows that money supply and loan interest rate are the Granger reasons for the fluctuation of real estate price. Moreover, the money supply has a positive relationship with the house price, the interest rate of the loan over five years has a positive relationship with the house price in the short term, and the long-term relationship is negative. The empirical study of international factors shows that there is a Granger relationship between the exchange rate and the real estate price. The appreciation of the RMB is expected to be accompanied by the inflow of international hot money into the domestic and real estate market. The cointegration test shows that both domestic financial factors and international finance have long-term effects on real estate prices. The main innovations are as follows: this paper examines the effects of multiple variables on real estate prices. The empirical part divides the domestic financial market and the international financial market, selects the data with a long span of time, and uses a variety of test methods to verify the impact of the financial factors on the real estate prices, and discusses the impact of financial factors on the real estate prices. It can provide reference basis for national macro-control, and has certain significance to promote national economy and maintain social stability.
【学位授予单位】：山西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.1;F831

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