基于系统动力学的西安市住宅增量市场与存量市场互动机理研究

发布时间：2018-03-09 00:35

本文选题：住宅　切入点：增量市场　出处：《西安建筑科技大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：学者认为住宅市场可分为增量市场和存量市场，且两者之间可以形成互动，两者的互动发展能帮助人民改善居住环境，保障住宅市场的健康发展。目前高房价逐渐成为社会关注的热点问题，面对日益上涨的房价，许多中低收入阶层购买能力不足，究其原因是存量市场的不发达，以及增量市场中存在投机行为，导致刚性需求还有部分未得到满足。因而研究增量与存量市场的互动机理就很有必要，能够帮助政府对住宅市场制定政策调控起到参考建议。本文先分析增量与存量市场的系统组成，将其分为三个基本子系统、六个影响因素子系统，并对其各个系统进行分析，运用系统动力学原理及方法，建立增量与存量市场互动机理的仿真模型，运用Vensim PLE系统动态仿真模拟软件，以西安市2002年至2013年的住宅市场的数据作为模型的基础数据，仿真预测了西安市2014年至2020年的住宅增量与存量市场的发展趋势，对模型反复的进行检验后，发现模型误差在5%之内，然后通过改变存量房的首付比例、贷款年限、贷款利率优惠及交易税费等宏观政策，模拟调控政策对增量与存量市场的影响，研究得出当增量房价格过高时，可以通过增加存量市场的交易，调节住宅市场的供求关系，当增量房的空置率较高时，可以通过减少存量市场的交易，促进增量市场的交易，实现住宅市场的供需平衡。并提出降低存量市场的交易成本、加强金融机构对存量房交易的支持力度、规范存量房交易的中介以及降低土地成本的盘活存量市场的调控政策，促进增量市场和存量市场的协调互动发展，，使得房地产市场健康可持续发展。
[Abstract]:Scholars believe that the housing market can be divided into incremental market and stock market, and the interaction between the two can be formed, the interactive development of the two can help people to improve the living environment. To ensure the healthy development of the housing market. At present, high housing prices have gradually become a hot issue of social concern. Faced with the rising housing prices, many low- and middle-income people have insufficient purchasing power, which is due to the underdevelopment of the stock market. Therefore, it is necessary to study the interactive mechanism of increment and stock market, which can help the government to make policy regulation and control of housing market. This paper first analyzes the system composition of increment and stock market, divides it into three basic subsystems, six influencing factor subsystems, and analyzes each system, and applies the system dynamics principle and method. A simulation model of the interaction mechanism between increment and stock market is established. The dynamic simulation software of Vensim PLE system is used. The data of Xi'an residential market from 2002 to 2013 are taken as the basic data of the model. The simulation predicts the development trend of housing increment and stock market in Xi'an from 2014 to 2020. After repeated tests on the model, the model error is found to be within 5%, and then by changing the down payment ratio of the stock house, the loan period, By simulating the influence of adjustment policies on the increment and stock market, it is concluded that when the price of incremental housing is too high, the supply and demand relationship of the housing market can be adjusted by increasing the transaction in the stock market. When the vacancy rate of the increment house is high, the transaction of the incremental market can be promoted by reducing the transaction in the stock market, and the balance of supply and demand of the housing market can be realized. Strengthening financial institutions' support for stock housing transactions, standardizing the intermediary of stock housing transactions and activating stock market control policies that reduce land costs, and promoting the coordinated and interactive development of the incremental market and the stock market. Make the real estate market healthy and sustainable development.
【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;N941.3

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