房地产上市公司财务危机预警模型建立与应用研究

发布时间：2018-03-13 02:03

本文选题：房地产　切入点：上市公司　出处：《昆明理工大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着中国经济进入调整期,受到宏观经济整体下行态势的影响,中国实体经济运行压力加大,公司生产经营困难加重。在这种大环境背景下,我国许多行业财务安全指数严重下滑,而房地产行业最为严重,并且波动较大。如果房地产上市公司出现财务危机,不仅影响自身的生存和发展,还给投资者、债权人等带来损失。因此,在一定程度上昭示了房地产公司财务危机预警的迫切性及必要性,尤其是市场竞争激烈程度增加,向房地产上市公司提出了高度重视公司财务安全的要求。本文的研究目的是构建系统、科学的分析模型,能够准确、全面地对房地产上市公司财务危机进行预警研究,从而全面把握经营过程中的复杂风险,做出正确战略决策,防患于未然,最大限度地实现财务危机的可控性和可预测性。通过对国内外有关公司财务危机研究的基础上,结合中国房地产行业和公司的特点,从财务危机理论及方法、预警模型、模型应用和财务危机控制措施等方面提出房地产上市公司财务危机预警模型建立及应用的研究思路。首先,综述国内外关于房地产上市公司财务危机预警理论的研究现状,分析财务危机与财务风险之间的关系,提出本文的研究内容及技术路线。其次,通过综合分析公司财务危机预警常用的方法,提出以支持向量机理论为基础的房地产财务危机预警模型建立的新思路,并重点阐述支持向量机及其相关分析理论。然后,根据房地产上市公司财务危机预警模型的建立流程,逐步分析房地产上市公司、财务危机预警模型指标体系以及非线性映射关系的建立,在此基础上,提出房地产上市公司财务危机预警模型。最后,在房地产上市公司财务危机预警模型建立的基础上,选定研究对象,根据预警模型的指标体系,收集相关数据,对预警模型进行实证应用,并对指标与财务危机情况进行关联度分析,提出控制措施。
[Abstract]:With the China economy entered a period of adjustment, affected by macroeconomic overall downward trend, operation pressure China real economy increase, difficulties in production and management company increased. In this background, the financial safety index in our country many industry in severe decline, and the real estate industry is most serious, and the fluctuations. If the real estate listed companies the financial crisis, not only affects the survival and development of their own to investors, creditors and other losses. Therefore, to a certain extent, reveals the necessity and urgency of the financial crisis early warning of the Real Estate Company, especially to increase the extent of market competition, real estate listed companies proposed attaches great importance to the company's financial security requirements.
The purpose of this study is to construct a system, scientific analysis model, to accurately and comprehensively on the real estate listed company financial crisis early warning research, in order to fully grasp the complexity of the risk management process, make correct strategic decision, nip in the bud, to maximize the financial crisis controllability and predictability through the base. Study on the financial crisis on the domestic and foreign companies, combined with the characteristics of the real estate industry and Chinese company, from the financial crisis early-warning model, theory and method, puts forward the research ideas of real estate listed company financial crisis early warning model establishment and application of the model and application of financial crisis control measures.
First, it summarizes the research status of financial crisis early warning theory of real estate listed companies both at home and abroad, analyzes the relationship between financial crisis and financial risk, and puts forward the research contents and technical line of this paper.
Secondly, by comprehensively analyzing the commonly used methods of financial crisis early warning, a new idea of establishing a real estate financial crisis early warning model based on support vector machine theory is put forward, and the support vector machine and its correlation analysis theory are emphasized.
Then, according to the establishment process of real estate listed company's financial crisis early warning model, we gradually analyze the establishment of index system and nonlinear mapping relationship of real estate listed companies, the financial crisis early warning model, and on this basis, we propose a financial distress prediction model for real estate listed companies.
Finally, based on the listed company's financial crisis early warning model in real estate, the research object, according to the index system of the early warning model, collect relevant data, an empirical application of the early warning model, and the analysis of correlation between index and financial crisis situation, puts forward the control measures.

【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.233.42

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