面向刚性需求市场的住房价格形成模型与合理房价研究

发布时间：2018-03-13 05:27

本文选题：刚性需求　切入点：房价形成模型　出处：《南京财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：住房作为一种商品,其核心问题就是价格问题。而刚性需求又是住房所需满足的最基本要求,因此面向刚性需求的住房价格形成及其结果的合理性研究较其他方向更能反映市场的调节和为政府管控措施提供依据。本文的研究内容和目的在于面向刚性需求住房市场研究普通商品住房的价格形成,分析其影响因素,简化概念得出房价形成模型与合理房价确定的原则,并进一步构建合理房价模型,通过测算具体分析当前房产政策的利弊,提出今后可实施的调控措施以保障刚性需求人群的基本住房权利,促进房地产市场健康稳定地发展。主要采用的方法则包括将定性与定量分析结合、理论分析与实证分析相结合。最终结论认为商品住房价格的形成由供需关系确定,而实现有效交易则是满足刚性需求、确定合理房价的首要原则。而一个稳定而持续发展的住房市场在首要原则的基础上还应保障供给方和需求方双方的基本利益,在参照南京市基本算例的情况下得出,面向刚性需求的新建住房价格的可能区间与合理涨幅,并得出二手房的合理价格以两年房龄以上可形成有效交易为基准。在对当前政府平抑投资、扶持刚性需求两类基本政策效应的分析中进一步提出今后的管控政策应当集中在控制房价增速、提高居民住房支付能力、调整住房结构以及降低特殊住房异质信念、建立住房信息系统等几个方面。本文的主要创新点表现在两个方面,首先在于通过数理定义、假设来阐释面向刚性需求的住房价格形成模型,在此基础上对合理房价各组成部分进行分析,推出确定合理房价的原则；其次是在合理房价原则基础上建立供需双方模型,从新建房合理价格与二手房合理价格两个方向对模型进行构建与阐释。
[Abstract]:As a kind of commodity, the core problem of housing is price, and rigid demand is the most basic requirement of housing. Therefore, the research on the rationality of housing price formation and its results oriented to rigid demand can better reflect the market regulation and provide the basis for government control measures than other directions. The research content and purpose of this paper is to meet the rigid demand. Research on the Housing Market the formation of the Price of ordinary Commodity Housing, By analyzing its influencing factors, simplifying the concept to get the formation model of house price and the principle of determining reasonable house price, and further constructing the model of reasonable house price, through calculating and analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of current real estate policy, In order to protect the basic housing rights of the people with rigid needs and promote the healthy and stable development of the real estate market, the main methods used include the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis. The final conclusion is that the formation of commodity housing price is determined by the relationship between supply and demand, and the effective transaction is to meet the rigid demand. A stable and sustainable housing market should also safeguard the basic interests of both the supply side and the demand side on the basis of the first principles, and draw a conclusion with reference to the basic example of Nanjing. The possible range and reasonable increase in the price of newly built housing facing rigid demand, and the conclusion that the reasonable price of second-hand housing is based on the effective transaction that can be formed over the age of two years. In the analysis of the two basic policy effects of supporting rigid demand, it is further pointed out that the future control policies should focus on controlling the increase of house prices, improving the residents' ability to pay for housing, adjusting the housing structure and reducing the heterogeneity of special housing. The main innovation of this paper lies in two aspects: firstly, through mathematical definition and hypothesis to explain the housing price formation model facing rigid demand. Based on the analysis of the components of the reasonable housing price, the principle of determining the reasonable housing price is put forward. Secondly, the supply and demand model is established on the basis of the reasonable housing price principle. The model is constructed and explained from two directions: the reasonable price of the new house and the reasonable price of the second-hand house.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

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