房地产商预售、退货与定价决策研究

发布时间：2018-03-13 19:20

本文选题：预售　切入点：远视消费者　出处：《合肥工业大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着房地产市场的快速升温,为促进其可持续健康发展,近期全国多个热点城市均发布了限贷、限购等房地产调控政策。在新形势下,房地产企业在基于所面临的差异化市场环境,特别是策略型消费者对未来预期估值变化以及存在退货行为的情况下,如何选择房地产市场的定价决策成为众多学者和房产商亟待研究的问题。本文首先对预售理论和退货策略的国内外相关学术研究进行了综述。其次,文章假设市场的中的消费者均为远视性消费者,基于市场供需关系、商品房的估值变化以及是否有新的消费者出现等因素,构建房产商两阶段销售的目标效用函数模型,通过对模型的分析和研究,得出了房地产商的预售决策及两阶段最优定价策略,并通过数值分析验证了理论证明相关结论。研究发现:若预售阶段结束后市场未出现新的消费者,在市场处于升值情境时,消费者对商品房预售及正常销售阶段的估值和房产商的资金效应系数对房产商预售决策有直接影响;而在市场处于下跌情境时,消费者的退货成为影响房产商预售决策和定价的主要因素。若预售阶段结束后市场中加入新的消费者,在市场处于升值情境时,在供给大于需求场景下预售对正常消费的影响系数决定了房产商的预售和定价决策,新进消费者并未影响到在供给小于需求场景下房产商的决策;在市场处于下跌情境时,预售影响系数和消费者的退货系数共同决定了房产商的预售和定价决策,且在不同情境下二者的重要性不同。
[Abstract]:With the rapid warming of the real estate market, in order to promote its sustainable and healthy development, a number of hot cities in the country have recently issued some real estate control policies, such as restricting loans and limiting purchases. Under the new situation, Based on the different market environment faced by real estate enterprises, especially in the case of strategic consumers' expected valuation changes in the future and the existence of return behavior, How to choose the pricing decision of the real estate market has become an urgent problem for many scholars and real estate merchants. Firstly, this paper summarizes the domestic and foreign academic research on pre-sale theory and return strategy. This paper assumes that the consumers in the market are hypersighted consumers. Based on the market supply and demand relationship, the valuation changes of commercial housing and whether there are new consumers, the paper constructs the objective utility function model of the two-stage sale of real estate. Through the analysis and study of the model, the pre-sale decision and the two-stage optimal pricing strategy of the real estate developer are obtained. The results show that if there are no new consumers in the market after the end of the pre-sale period, when the market is in a situation of appreciation, Consumers' valuation of commercial housing pre-sale and normal stage of sale and the capital effect coefficient of real estate developers have a direct impact on the pre-sale decision of real estate developers, and when the market is in a situation of decline, The return of goods by consumers becomes the main factor that affects the pre-sale decision and pricing of real estate companies. If new consumers are added to the market after the pre-sale phase is over, when the market is in a situation of appreciation, The influence coefficient of presale on normal consumption in the scenario where supply is greater than demand determines the pre-sale and pricing decision of real estate business. The new consumer does not affect the decision of real estate under the scenario where supply is smaller than demand; when the market is in a situation of decline, The influence coefficient of pre-sale and the return coefficient of consumers jointly determine the pre-sale and pricing decision of the real estate business, and the importance of the two is different in different situations.
【学位授予单位】：合肥工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.233.4

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