雅居乐广州科学城项目风险度量研究

发布时间：2018-03-15 02:31

本文选题：项目风险度量　切入点：敏感性分析法　出处：《中国海洋大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：二十世纪以来,我国房地产行业得到空前的发展,房地产市场逐渐壮大。2009年中国经济逐步摆脱金融危机的影响,中国GDP的增长也实现了“保8”的目标。在这样背景下,我国房地产市场也发展到了一个新的阶段,全国各地房地产市场成交量及价格均恢复到2007年的水平。任何一个投资项目,在享受收益的同时,必然要承担一定的风险。房地产开发项目由于在空间上具有固定性,投资规模大,开发周期长,开发条件差、环境恶劣,开发过程程序复杂、涉及范围广泛,导致其面临的风险尤为巨大,需要加强房地产开发项目的风险管理。对房地产风险管理时,只有对项目风险进行准确的度量,才能保证在风险预测、防范和控制时有据可依,更好地制定风险管理对策。本文以雅居乐广州科学城项目为研究对象,对该项目的风险进行了度量。论文首先分析房地产项目的特点以及风险度量的内容,并结合房地产项目的特点,选择合适的房地产项目风险度量方法,为后面的实证研究提供理论依据。其次,对论文的研究对象——雅居乐广州科学城项目,从项目地块、规划设计、产品、工期等几个方面的概况进行了介绍分析,特别是重点分析了项目的财务状况。第三,论文分析该项目存在的风险因素,选取了8个最为重要的风险进行分析,运用层次分析法对雅居乐广州科学城项目的风险进行了度量,结果表明材料价格上涨、施工质量要求高、地方百姓的干扰等因素是对该项目风险影响最大、最重要的,为风险的控制提供了科学的依据。
[Abstract]:Since 20th century, China's real estate industry has experienced unprecedented development and the real estate market has gradually grown. In 2009, China's economy gradually escaped from the influence of the financial crisis, and the growth of China's GDP has also achieved the goal of "Bao8". The real estate market in our country has also developed to a new stage. The volume and price of real estate markets in various parts of the country have recovered to the level of 2007. Any investment project, while enjoying the benefits, Because of its fixed space, large investment scale, long development period, poor development conditions, bad environment, complex development process and wide range, real estate development projects must bear certain risks. It is necessary to strengthen the risk management of the real estate development project. In the real estate risk management, only when the project risk is accurately measured, can the risk be predicted, prevented and controlled on the basis of evidence. This paper takes the project of Guangzhou Science City as the research object, measures the risk of the project. Firstly, the paper analyzes the characteristics of the real estate project and the content of the risk measurement. Combined with the characteristics of real estate projects, choose the appropriate real estate project risk measurement methods, for the following empirical research to provide theoretical basis. Secondly, the research object of the paper-Yajulue Guangzhou Science City project, from the project land, The general situation of planning, design, product, time limit and so on are introduced and analyzed, especially the financial status of the project. Thirdly, the paper analyzes the risk factors existing in the project and selects eight of the most important risks to analyze. The risk of Guangzhou Science City is measured by AHP. The results show that the increase of material price, the high quality of construction and the interference of local people are the most important factors affecting the risk of the project. It provides scientific basis for risk control.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.233.4

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