中国房产价格的影响因素

发布时间：2018-03-16 21:43

本文选题：房价　切入点：代际交叠　出处：《浙江大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中国的房地产市场自住房改革以来发展十分迅猛,为带动国民经济的增长做出了重大的贡献。但是,近年来房产价格持续飞涨,使得房价的走势和调控一直是研究的焦点。本文以房地产市场的长期趋势和影响因素为研究主题。首先,本文在分析了中国房地产市场的现状、梳理了国内外研究宏观经济和房产价格经典文献的基础上,构建了一个代际交叠模型来研究房价上升的两种效应——居住驱动效应和投资驱动效应。居住驱动效应指的是,消费者购买自住性房屋对房价的推动效应。相应的,投资驱动效应指的是,消费者购买投资性房屋对房价的推动效应。之后,本文选择了以校准法为主、计量法为辅的方法进行实证分析,对中国房产价格进行了量化模拟。研究结果显示:第一,房产价格不断上涨的直接驱动机制为居民的居住驱动效应和投资者的投资驱动效应,这两者的结合能解释中国95%以上的房价增长,其中有60%以上是投资驱动效应所带来的房价增长,相比美国的25%左右相去甚远;第二,由企业TFP增速和资本产出份额过大导致的居民对房价的高预期是影响房地产过度投资的间接主要因素,居民对经济增长的预期加上对资产配置手段的匮乏,造成了来自需求端的巨大压力,导致了资本对房地产投资的过度配置。最后,基于理论研究和实证分析的结论,并结合近年来政府出台的相关政策和国外的成熟经验,本文对中国房地产市场的今后发展和调控方向给出了相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:China real estate market since the housing reform is very rapid development, made a significant contribution to promote the growth of the national economy. However, in recent years, real estate prices continue to soar, and the trend of price regulation is the focus of the research. Based on the long-term trend of real estate market and influence as the research subject. Firstly, this paper in the analysis of the current situation of the real estate market China, combing the foundation of the classical literature of macro economy and real estate prices at home and abroad, construct an overlapping generations model to study the effect of two kinds of housing prices rise -- living driving effect and investment driven effect. The driving effect refers to the living, consumers buy home housing prices push effect. Accordingly, investment driven effect means that consumers purchase housing investment promoting effect on prices. After that, this paper chooses a calibration method, Method of measurement by empirical analysis on real estate price Chinese quantified simulation. The results show: first, the driving effect of rising property prices in the direct driving mechanism for driving effect and investors to residential investment, this combination can explain more than 95% of the China price growth, more than 60% of them are bring the investment driven effect of the price increase, compared to about 25% of the United States from second; by the enterprise TFP growth and capital output share is too high expectations for housing prices to the residents is indirect main factors affecting the excessive investment in real estate, residents' expectations for economic growth in addition to asset allocation means the lack of cause great pressure from the demand side, leading to excessive allocation of capital to real estate investment. Finally, theoretical research and empirical analysis based on the conclusion, combined with the recent political The relevant policies of the government and the mature experience of foreign countries have given the corresponding policy suggestions to the future development and direction of the real estate market in China.

【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23

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