我国房地产系统性风险的研究

发布时间：2018-03-18 14:18

本文选题：房地产　切入点：系统性风险　出处：《浙江大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近十年来,房地产业作为支柱性产业,成为了政府以固定资产投资拉动经济增长的重要手段。与此同时,高企的房价也带来了严重的社会问题。调控政策层层加码,房价一直未能进入下降通道,民众对于房地产调控政策失去了信心,甚至认为房价永远不会下降,房地产行业永远不会出现系统性风险。随着宏观环境的变化,房地产调控政策趋紧,土地供应的不断扩大,人口红利渐渐消失,供求关系不断改善,房价下跌的拐点或许会悄然来临。同时,房地产市场长期的“非理性繁荣”,也引发了我们对于房地产价格波动对相关行业、金融系统乃至宏观部门的冲击的担忧。本文深入剖析我国房地产行业基本面与政策面的现状,并借助影响房地产市场的外部因素与内部因素,捕捉到房地产市场拐点的蛛丝马迹,本文发现未来房地产供给曲线将向右下方移动,需求曲线将向左下方移动,我国房地产系统性风险的脚步已经临近。同时本文通过实证分析证明了房地产系统性风险对地方政府的财政状况、金融系统以及宏观经济部门有较强的传染效应。在此基础上,本文认为必须建立房地产调控的长效机制,同时宏观审慎监管,切断房地产风险的传染途径。
[Abstract]:In the past decade, the real estate industry, as a pillar industry, has become an important means for the government to use fixed assets investment to stimulate economic growth. At the same time, high housing prices have also brought serious social problems. Housing prices have been unable to enter the downward path, and the public has lost confidence in real estate regulation and control policies. They even think that housing prices will never fall, and that the real estate industry will never have systemic risks. With the change of the macro environment, Real estate regulation and control policies are tightening, land supply is expanding, the demographic dividend is gradually disappearing, supply and demand relations are constantly improving, and the inflection point of falling house prices may come quietly. At the same time, The long-term "irrational boom" in the real estate market has also raised concerns about the impact of volatile property prices on related industries, the financial system and even the macro sector. This paper deeply analyzes the present situation of the fundamental and policy aspects of the real estate industry in our country, and with the help of the external and internal factors affecting the real estate market, catches the clues of the inflection point of the real estate market. This paper finds that the future real estate supply curve will move to the lower right, and the demand curve will move to the lower left. At the same time, this paper proves that the systemic risk of real estate has a strong contagion effect on the financial situation of local government, the financial system and the macroeconomic sector through the empirical analysis. This paper holds that it is necessary to establish a long-term mechanism of real estate regulation and control, and at the same time, to cut off the contagion path of real estate risk by macro-prudential supervision.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

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