S船载光电监控项目的风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-03-19 15:19

本文选题：船载光电项目　切入点：风险管理　出处：《山东大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着社会的发展,国家对科技发展越来越重视,科研项目呈现出经费和数量双增长的趋势,项目延期和完成率低下也成为一个难题,如何科学有效的对科研项目进行管理,降低项目实施风险,降低损失逐渐成为高校科研院所十分关心的课题。我国对项目风险管理研究起步较晚,研究多针对工程项目或企业项目,在风电、房地产、大型工程等多个领域开展了丰富的研究,但关于科研项目的风险管理研究相对较少,理论研究一般针对识别、评估、应对中的某种方法,总体实践应用研究很少,集中在航空航天科研项目和大型装备类科研项目。本文首次以船载光电项目作为研究对象,根据船载光电类项目独特特点,借助项目管理、风险管理相关理论方法,研究如何对S船载光电监控项目研发过程中可能的风险点进行识别、评估和应对,选择合适的方法,并记录实施效果,总结经验,其中,如何选取有效的识别方法、评估方式和应对措施是本文的难点。第一章绪论主要介绍研究背景、意义、内容方法和技术路线,第二章阐述了本文用到的相关理论和研究现状,第三章对S船载光电监控项目进行了总体概述,主要从执行项目背景、研发内容和目标、项目架构三个方面进行介绍,其中对项目架构进行了 WBS(Work Breakdown Structure)、OBS(Organization Breakdown Structure)、PBS(Product Breakdown Structure)分解,为风险识别打下基础,然后制定项目风险管理规划,制定风险管理方案。第四章建立WBS-OBS-PBS模型,通过历史资料法、检查表法和头脑风暴法识别项目风险点,利用层次分析法构建判断矩阵,根据权重对风险进行排序,在此基础上运用模糊评价法对项目开展风险评价。第五章根据权重和排序将风险分为三种类型,对于重要风险,制定"事前-事中-事后"应对措施,降低风险损失,对于一般风险,制定"控制、规避、转移、转换、补偿"相应对策,制定突发风险应对策略,动态循环实施风险监控,及早发现风险,降低损失。第六章将项目风险管理实施效果分别与合同和历史项目进行对比,检查风险管理效果,总结实践经验。第七章对全文进行总结和展望。
[Abstract]:With the development of the society, the country pays more and more attention to the development of science and technology, and the scientific research projects show a trend of double increase in expenditure and quantity. The low rate of project extension and completion has also become a difficult problem. How to manage the scientific research projects scientifically and effectively, Reducing the risk of project implementation and reducing losses have gradually become a topic of great concern to scientific research institutes in colleges and universities. In China, the research on project risk management started relatively late, and the research mostly focused on engineering projects or enterprise projects, wind power, real estate, A lot of research has been carried out in many fields, such as large-scale engineering, but the research on risk management of scientific research projects is relatively few. The theoretical research is generally aimed at some method of identification, evaluation and response, and the overall practical application research is very few. Focusing on aerospace scientific research projects and large-scale equipment research projects. This paper takes the shipborne photovoltaic projects as the research object for the first time, according to the unique characteristics of shipborne photovoltaic projects, with the help of project management, risk management related theoretical methods, This paper studies how to identify, evaluate and deal with the possible risk points in the R & D process of S-ship photoelectric monitoring project, select the appropriate method, record the effect of the implementation, sum up the experience, and how to select the effective identification method. The first chapter introduces the research background, significance, content method and technical route, and the second chapter describes the relevant theories and research status of this paper, the first chapter introduces the research background, the significance, the content method and the technical route, the second chapter elaborated the related theory and the research present situation of this article. The third chapter gives a general overview of S shipborne optoelectronic monitoring project, mainly from three aspects: implementation background, research and development contents and objectives, and project architecture, in which the project architecture is decomposed by WBS(Work Breakdown structure Organization Breakdown structure structure. It lays the foundation for risk identification, then makes project risk management planning and risk management plan. Chapter 4th establishes WBS-OBS-PBS model, identifies project risk points by historical data method, check table method and brainstorming method. Using AHP to construct judgment matrix, ranking the risk according to the weight, then using fuzzy evaluation method to carry out the risk evaluation of the project. Chapter 5th divides the risk into three types according to the weight and ranking, for the important risk, To formulate the countermeasures of "fore-in-the-hind- afterwards", to reduce the risk loss, to formulate the corresponding countermeasures of "control, avoid, transfer, transform and compensate" for the general risk, to formulate the strategy of dealing with the sudden risk, and to implement the risk monitoring and control by dynamic circulation. Chapter 6th compares the implementation effect of project risk management with contract and historical project, checks the effect of risk management, and summarizes the practical experience. Chapter 7th summarizes and looks forward to the full text.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U665

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