基于可拓理论的商业地产项目开发风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-03-21 02:34

本文选题：商业地产　切入点：项目开发　出处：《重庆大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来，随着住宅地产开发的日渐成熟以及国家不断颁布的宏观调控政策，住宅地产的热度逐渐趋于平缓。而兼具保值和增值能力的商业地产项目，其投资开发逐渐受到了房地产企业更多的关注。商业地产项目的开发是一个整合了地产开发和商业经营的复合型地产，项目高投资回报的同时也伴随的高风险。其本身的属性决定了项目开发具有较长的开发周期，同时对资金链和管理能力的要求较高，如何在项目开发时客观、准确的评价项目风险，增大项目的成功机会和获利能力，，是房地产企业在进行项目开发时必须要考虑的基本问题。本文首先对项目风险和商业地产项目开发做了理论综述，为下文识别项目风险识别和评价做了理论基础。随后，笔者采用文献研究和实证研究相结合，根据项目风险的可拓理论，构建了商业地产项目的风险评价指标体系，并进行了风险评价。然后，笔者根据构建的评价体系对商业地产项目风险进行定量化的风险评价工作，测度现实中具体某商业地产项目开发的风险状态，从而总结出一套适合我国商业地产项目开发风险评价的指标体系和评价方法。最后为验证论文的实用性，笔者根据构建的风险评价模型，对淄博市“华润五彩城”商业地产项目开发进行了风险识别和风险评价的实证分析。本文研究的目的，一是根据可拓学理论，对国内商业地产项目开发的风险提供系统科学的风险识别、度量和评价的方法；二是通过此次论文的研究成果能够为商业地产项目风险的控制提供可量化的指标体系，以期在项目实施过程中可以提前做好风险应对措施；三是以本论文研究内容为基础，为今后对商业地产项目开发风险评价进行更深一步研究提供基础。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the maturation of residential real estate development and the macro-control policies promulgated by the state, the heat of residential real estate is gradually leveling off. Its investment and development have gradually attracted more attention from real estate enterprises. The development of commercial real estate projects is a composite real estate that integrates real estate development with commercial management. The nature of the project determines that the project has a long development cycle, at the same time the requirements of the financial chain and management ability are high, how to objectively develop the project. It is essential for real estate enterprises to evaluate project risk accurately and increase their chances of success and profitability. This paper firstly summarizes the theory of project risk and commercial real estate project development, and makes a theoretical basis for identifying project risk identification and evaluation below. Then, the author combines literature research with empirical research. According to the extension theory of project risk, this paper constructs the risk evaluation index system of commercial real estate project, and carries on the risk evaluation. Then, the author carries on the quantitative risk evaluation work to the commercial real estate project risk according to the evaluation system. This paper measures the risk state of a commercial real estate project in reality, and sums up a set of index system and evaluation method suitable for the risk evaluation of commercial real estate project development in China. Finally, in order to verify the practicability of the paper, According to the risk evaluation model, the author analyzes the risk identification and risk evaluation of the commercial real estate development of "China Resources Wucai City" in Zibo City. The purpose of this paper is to provide a systematic and scientific method of risk identification, measurement and evaluation for domestic commercial real estate development risk based on extension theory. Second, through the research results of this paper can provide a quantifiable index system for commercial real estate project risk control, in order to do a good job in the implementation of the project risk response measures; third, based on the research content of this paper, It provides a basis for further research on commercial real estate project development risk evaluation in the future.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TU247

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