金融杠杆、房地产价格与金融稳定性——基于基于SVAR模型的实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-28 01:07

本文选题：金融杠杆　切入点：房地产价格　出处：《经济学家》2017年08期

【摘要】：本文基于我国2000年1月—2016年12月的相关经济数据,运用主成分分析法设置了金融稳定性指标,在此基础上构建了金融杠杆、房地产价格与金融稳定性变量的SVAR模型。研究了金融杠杆与房地产价格的相互关系,以及其分别对金融稳定性的影响。结论表明:金融杠杆与房地产价格存在相互促进的关系,并且二者的攀升都不利于金融系统的稳定。所以,我国现阶段应采取"去杠杆"和遏制房地产价格过快上涨的政策,以及要合理抑制房地产价格与金融杠杆两者相互刺激的长效机制等,以利于调控房地产价格水平和维护金融系统的稳定。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the relevant economic data of China from January 2000 to December 2016 based on the principal component analysis of financial stability index setting method, constructed on the basis of financial leverage, the SVAR model of real estate prices and financial stability variables. This paper studies the relationship between financial leverage and real estate prices, as well as its influence on financial stability respectively. Conclusion: there is a relationship of mutual promotion of financial leverage and real estate prices rise, and the two is not conducive to the stability of the financial system. Therefore, our country should take "deleveraging" and curb real estate prices rising too fast and reasonable policy to curb real estate prices and financial leverage are mutually stimulated the long-term mechanism, in order to control the real estate price level and maintain the stability of the financial system.

【作者单位】：南开大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目“我国发展实体经济的战略、政策和制度研究——基于实体经济和虚拟经济数量关系的视角”(13&ZD018) 河北省高等学校青年拔尖人才计划项目“京津冀银行业协同监管研究——基于批发融资依赖的风险效应视角”(BJ2017075)
【分类号】：F299.23;F832

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