我国货币政策在房地产市场调控的效率评价

发布时间：2018-03-29 03:18

本文选题：货币政策　切入点：房地产市场　出处：《河北大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文在对我国今年房地产市场的货币政策调控效率评价的基础上，通过对不同城市数据的分析，将货币政策对一二线城市房地产市场调控的不同效果进行对比。重点使用数据包络分析和VAR模型实证分析法，对不同城市房地产市场的货币政策效率进行对比，，并分析造成差异的原因。在实证分析的基础上提炼出提高我国房地产市场调控的货币政策效率的政策建议。实证证明我国房地产市场货币政策调控总体是有效率的，但是也存在一、二线城市的效率差异：即货币政策对于二线城市房地产市场的调控效率要高于一线城市。房地产开发投资方面，货币存量指标对于一线城市的影响大于二线城市；贷款规模则在二线城市影响更大。房地产价格方面，一线城市房地产价格对于货币供应量的改变更加敏感；二线城市则对于利率的改变更加敏感。最后提出如下政策建议：第一，调整货币政策工具，加快利率市场化，稳定货币供应量，在制定与执行货币政策是应考虑到不同地区的房地产市场发展层次与特点，在发展程度较低的地区应该适度增加政策倾斜，避免由于过于严厉的货币政策造成房地产市场的剧烈波动。第二，根据不同城市的货币政策的房地产市场调控特点实行差别化的信贷政策。第三，建立各地房地产市场监控机制，完善房地产市场调控体系。第四，在政策制定和执行过程中针对不同地区房地产市场特点以及民生情况进行考虑。
[Abstract]:Based on the evaluation of the efficiency of monetary policy regulation in China's real estate market this year, this paper analyzes the data of different cities. This paper compares the different effects of monetary policy on the regulation and control of the real estate market in the first and second tier cities. The emphasis is on the use of data envelopment analysis and empirical analysis of VAR model to compare the efficiency of monetary policy in different urban real estate markets. On the basis of empirical analysis, some policy suggestions to improve the efficiency of monetary policy in real estate market regulation in China are presented. Empirical evidence shows that monetary policy regulation in China's real estate market is generally efficient, but there is also one, The efficiency difference of the second-tier cities is that the efficiency of the monetary policy in regulating the real estate market of the second-tier cities is higher than that of the first-tier cities, and the impact of the money stock index on the first-tier cities is greater than that on the second-tier cities in the aspect of real estate development and investment. Loans are more important in second-tier cities. In terms of real estate prices, first-tier cities are more sensitive to changes in money supply and second-tier cities are more sensitive to changes in interest rates. Finally, the following policy suggestions are put forward: first, adjusting the monetary policy tools, speeding up the marketization of interest rates, stabilizing the money supply, should take into account the development levels and characteristics of the real estate market in different regions in formulating and implementing monetary policy. In less developed areas, we should appropriately increase the policy bias to avoid drastic fluctuations in the real estate market as a result of overly stringent monetary policies. Second, According to the characteristics of real estate market regulation and control in different cities, we should implement differentiated credit policies. Third, we should set up local real estate market monitoring mechanisms and perfect the real estate market regulation and control system. Fourth, In the process of policy making and implementation, considering the characteristics of real estate market and people's livelihood in different regions.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F822.0;F299.23

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