贵州省房地产价格的波动特点及成因分析

发布时间：2018-04-04 16:44

本文选题：房地产价格　切入点：波动性　出处：《贵州财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：房地产在国民经济和财政收入中有很重要的作用。一方面,房价的变动影响财政收入，房价的高低影响开发商开发房地产的积极性，开发商的积极性又会影响土地价格的高低。由于土地出让金占据地方财政收入中的较大份额，所以房价波动会对地方政府的财政收入产生影响，从而影响国家的基础建设。另外一方面,房价的波动和人民的生活息息相关，由于房产具有特殊性，使得房地产既是生活的必需品，又是投资品。一线城市比如北京、上海、广州、天津、杭州等，房价高居不下,省会城市和人口较多的城市，对房产有很强的刚性需求，其房价持续上涨。国内大多都是基于全国性的房地产的研究，对贵州省房地产价格的波动特点及成因分析的研究目前还不多，而贵州省处于我国的西南部，其房价波动特点具有和全国一样的共性，也有贵州省自身的特性。基于此，本文分四个部分研究贵州省房地产价格的波动特点并对其成因进行分析。第一部分，主要是从房地产价格的特点、形成机制以及房地产泡沫三个角度对房地产价格的相关理论进行介绍。第二部分，参阅贵州省每年的统计年鉴，搜集到贵州省2001年到2013年的房地产价格的月度数据，，对贵州省房地产价格序列建立模型，最终经过验证得到贵州省房地产价格序列为AR（2）过程。第三部分，用格兰杰因果检验的方法检验贵州省房地产价格是否与其他经济因素存在因果关系，并用协整检验的方法检验贵州省房地产价格与各因素是否存在长期均衡关系。文中主要验证贵州省房地产价格与四个因素的之间的关系：1、经济的基本面因素，主要考虑贵州省的GDP和贵州省的商品零售价格指数两个因素；2、政策因素，主要考虑货币供应量M1和1-3年的中长期贷款利率两个因素；3、土地价格；4、虚拟经济，因贵州省虚拟经济发展比较晚、相对还不成熟，故文中虚拟经济与贵州省房地产价格变化的关系没有做定量的分析。第四部分，利用上文得到的影响房地产价格变动的因素，分析其对贵州省房地产价格波动的影响程度。其中用季节调整的方法，分离出贵州省房地产价格最终的季节调整后的序列、最终的季节因子、长期趋势循环序列和最终的不规则要素分量，并用HP滤波从趋势循环项中分离出周期循环项，得到房地产价格波动周期，对周期规律进行分析。最后，得出本文研究的结论，并提出相应的建议，为政府对房产的宏观调控和房产需求者进行理性投资做参考。文中还有不足之处，期待改进。
[Abstract]:Real estate plays an important role in national economy and financial revenue.On the one hand, the change of house price affects the financial income, the level of house price affects the enthusiasm of developers to develop real estate, and the enthusiasm of developers will affect the level of land price.Because the land transfer fee occupies a large share of the local fiscal revenue, the fluctuation of house prices will have an impact on the local government's fiscal revenue, thus affecting the national infrastructure construction.On the other hand, the fluctuation of house price is closely related to people's life. Because of the particularity of real estate, real estate is not only a necessity of life, but also an investment item.First-tier cities, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Hangzhou, etc., with high house prices, capital cities and cities with large populations, have strong rigid demand for real estate, and their house prices continue to rise.Most of the research in China is based on the national real estate research. There are few studies on the fluctuation characteristics and causes of real estate prices in Guizhou Province, and Guizhou Province is located in the southwest of China.Its house price fluctuation characteristic has the same common character with the whole country, also has the Guizhou Province own characteristic.Based on this, this paper studies the fluctuation characteristics of real estate price in Guizhou Province in four parts and analyzes its causes.The first part mainly introduces the theory of real estate price from three angles: the characteristics of real estate price, the formation mechanism and the real estate bubble.The second part, referring to the annual statistical yearbooks of Guizhou Province, collects monthly data of real estate prices in Guizhou Province from 2001 to 2013, and establishes a model of real estate prices in Guizhou Province.Finally, it is verified that the real estate price sequence of Guizhou Province is ARN 2) process.In the third part, the Granger causality test is used to test whether the real estate price in Guizhou Province has causality with other economic factors, and the co-integration test is used to test whether there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the real estate price and each factor in Guizhou Province.This paper mainly verifies the relationship between real estate prices and four factors in Guizhou Province: 1, the fundamental factors of economy, mainly considering the GDP of Guizhou Province and the commodity retail price index of Guizhou Province two factors, the policy factors.Mainly considering money supply M1 and the medium and long-term loan interest rates of 1-3 years, the two factors are three, the land price is 4, and the virtual economy, because the virtual economy of Guizhou Province develops relatively late and is relatively immature.Therefore, the relationship between virtual economy and real estate price change in Guizhou Province is not quantitatively analyzed.The fourth part analyzes the influence degree of the real estate price fluctuation in Guizhou province by using the factors which affect the real estate price fluctuation.Among them, the method of seasonal adjustment is used to separate out the final seasonally adjusted series of real estate prices in Guizhou Province, the final seasonal factors, the long-term trend cycle series and the final irregular element components.The periodic cycle term is separated from the trend cycle term by HP filter, and the real estate price fluctuation cycle is obtained, and the cycle law is analyzed.Finally, the conclusion of this paper is drawn, and the corresponding suggestions are put forward for the government to make a reference for the macro-control of real estate and rational investment for the real estate demanders.There are still some shortcomings in this paper, which are expected to be improved.
【学位授予单位】：贵州财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

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