二手住宅与新建商品住宅的价格关系及影响机制研究

发布时间：2018-04-08 23:32

本文选题：二手住宅　切入点：新建商品住宅　出处：《复旦大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：近几年来,房地产行业发展迅猛,引起人们广泛地关注。房地产业不仅是国民经济中的重要部分,也与国计民生紧密相连。无论对于国家、社会,还是对于人民都意义非凡。而房价是房地产市场中一个至关重要的问题。从我国的实际情况来看,从2002年开始,房价虽有波动,但整体呈现迅速上涨的趋势。持续处于高位的房价不仅给人们的生活带来了较大的经济负担,也对房地产市场的健康发展和稳健运行有着不利的影响,还有可能危及到其他相关的领域。可见,保持房价的平稳运行对于促进房地产市场的长远发展、金融风险的降低乃至国民经济正常运行的和社会稳定都有着极其关键的作用。随着新建商品住宅价格的快速上涨,二手住宅的一些优势也逐渐显现出来,人们的购房意愿有向二手住宅转向的趋势。二手住宅价格和新建商品住宅价格之间究竟有什么样的关系呢?是否有其他影响二手住宅与新建商品住宅价格关系的因素呢?探索以上问题、得出相关的结论,对于促进住宅市场的健康发展和人民生活质量的提高都具有非常重要的理论和实际意义。本文从我国房价持续高位运行这一背景着手,对国内35个大中城市的二手住宅价格与新建商品住宅价格进行分析,发现新建商品住宅价格的上涨对二手住宅价格的上扬有一定带动作用。同时,本文还选取了居民住宅用地交易价格、GDP等一些宏微观因素,运用Panel Data的分析方法,得到这些宏微观因素与二手住宅和新建商品住宅价格之间的关系。其中,二手住宅价格与人口、GDP以及居民住宅用地交易价格呈正相关关系,与竣工住宅面积和收入存在负相关关系,并且需求因素对住宅价格的推动作用比供给因素更大。人口因素对东部城市住宅价格的推动比对中西部城市大。另外,本文以2011年为子样本,对按面积分类住宅价格进行研究,得到了一些有趣的结论：大户型的价格不易受到外部因素的影响,中小户型的价格受到历史价格的影响较大,并且选择中等户型的人居多。最后,就本文得出的结论对促进住宅市场健康发展提出了一些建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the rapid development of the real estate industry has aroused widespread concern.Real estate is not only an important part of the national economy, but also closely linked with the national economy and people's livelihood.It is of great significance to the country, society and the people.Housing prices are a crucial issue in the real estate market.From the actual situation of our country, the house price has fluctuated since 2002, but the overall trend is rising rapidly.The persistently high housing prices not only bring a large economic burden to people's lives, but also have a negative impact on the healthy development and steady operation of the real estate market, and may endanger other related fields.It can be seen that maintaining the stable operation of house prices plays an extremely critical role in promoting the long-term development of the real estate market, reducing the financial risks and even the normal operation of the national economy and social stability.With the rapid rise in the price of new commercial housing, some advantages of second-hand housing are gradually revealed, and people's willingness to buy housing has a tendency to turn to second-hand housing.What is the relationship between the second-hand housing price and the new housing price?Are there any other factors that affect the price relationship between second-hand housing and new commercial housing?It is of great theoretical and practical significance to explore the above problems and draw relevant conclusions to promote the healthy development of the housing market and the improvement of people's quality of life.Based on the background of the sustained high housing prices in China, this paper analyzes the prices of second-hand houses and newly built houses in 35 large and medium-sized cities in China.It is found that the rise of new commodity housing prices has a certain driving effect on the rise of secondary housing prices.At the same time, this paper also selects some macro and micro factors, such as the transaction price of residential land, etc., and obtains the relationship between these macro and micro factors and the prices of second-hand housing and new commercial housing by using the method of Panel Data.Among them, the second-hand housing price has a positive correlation with the GDP of the population and the transaction price of residential land, and has a negative correlation with the completed housing area and income, and the demand factor has a greater impact on the housing price than the supply factor.The population factor to the eastern city housing price promotion is bigger than to the central and western cities.In addition, taking 2011 as the subsample, this paper studies the housing price classified by area, and obtains some interesting conclusions: the price of large type is not easily affected by external factors, and the price of small and medium type is greatly affected by historical price.And the choice of medium household type of people in the majority.Finally, some suggestions are put forward to promote the healthy development of housing market.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

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