土地供应调控对城市商品住宅价格影响分析

发布时间：2018-04-10 06:16

本文选题：土地供应调控　切入点：商品住宅价格　出处：《云南财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：1998年实行住房市场化改革以来，我国商品住宅市场快速发展，城市商品住宅价格上涨幅度过快，甚至出现了畸形的房价。房价就像脱缰的野马，一路飙升，针对商品住宅的销售价格较快增长的事实，政府自2003年以来出台了一系列的宏观调控政策，但结果不甚明显。本文以十个代表城市为例，，研究土地供应调控对城市商品住宅价格的影响，结合土地供需、房地产供需与价格、土地供应与住宅价格传导机制、地租和低价等理论研究，分别从土地供应面积和住宅用地价格两个方面入手研究土地供应调控对商品住宅价格的影响程度，收集和分析我国三类城市类型中十个代表城市土地供应调控、商品住宅市场波动的数据，利用Eviews软件进行面板数据模型回归检验，最终得出结论由于三类城市市场化水平程度的高低不同及其受政府调控力度强弱的影响，土地供应调控对三类城市商品住宅价格影响是需要依据城市实际情况区分研究和制定相应的调控政策。本文在结合现有文献研究结果的基础上，将范围确定在我国具有代表性的十个城市，分别是北京、广州、深圳、上海、武汉、成都、西安、郑州、昆明、贵阳，将这十个代表城市按城市经济发展水平及市场化程度的高低划分为了三种不同类型，考虑对三类城市进行对比分析研究土地供应调控对城市商品住宅价格影响。其次搜集我国三类、十个代表城市自1998--2012年跨度15年的年度数据，选取影响商品住宅价格变动的主要因素，建立面板数据回归模型对三类城市数据做实证研究，将回归结果进行对比分析及论证，分析了城市土地供应面积、居住用地价格对商品住宅价格的影响程度，及为未来土地规划提供建议。通过模型回归论证，得出结论政府应该依城市实际发展情况区分研究土地供应调控对三类城市商品住宅价格影响。依据城市自身发展特色及发展程度，制定合理的土地调控策略及规划，未来更应结合不同城市情况制定相应调控政策。
[Abstract]:Since the reform of housing marketization was carried out in 1998, the commodity housing market in China has developed rapidly, the price of urban commercial housing has risen too fast, and even abnormal housing prices have appeared.House prices are running wild, soaring, and the government has introduced a series of macroeconomic controls since 2003 in response to the fact that sales prices of commodity homes have risen faster, but the results have not been obvious.This paper takes ten representative cities as an example to study the influence of land supply regulation on urban commodity housing price, combining the theoretical research of land supply and demand, real estate supply and price, land supply and housing price transmission mechanism, land rent and low price.From two aspects of land supply area and residential land price, this paper studies the influence of land supply regulation on commodity housing price, and collects and analyzes the land supply regulation and control of ten representative cities in three types of cities in China.The data of the fluctuation of commodity housing market are tested by panel data model regression test with Eviews software. Finally, the conclusion is drawn that the level of marketization of the three cities is different and affected by the intensity of government regulation and control.The impact of land supply regulation on the price of three kinds of urban commercial housing needs to be differentiated according to the actual situation of the city and the corresponding regulation and control policies should be formulated.Based on the research results of the existing literature, this paper determines the scope of ten representative cities in China, namely, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Shanghai, Wuhan, Chengdu, Xi'an, Zhengzhou, Kunming, Guiyang.The ten representative cities are divided into three different types according to the level of urban economic development and the degree of marketization.Secondly, collect the annual data of three kinds of cities, ten representative cities from 1998 to 2012, select the main factors that affect the change of commodity housing price, and establish panel data regression model to do empirical research on the three kinds of urban data.By comparing and analyzing the regression results, the paper analyzes the influence of urban land supply area and residential land price on the commodity housing price, and provides some suggestions for the future land planning.Through the regression analysis of the model, it is concluded that the government should study the effect of land supply regulation on the price of three kinds of urban commercial housing according to the actual development of the city.According to the characteristics and degree of urban development, rational land regulation and control strategies and plans should be formulated in the future, which should be combined with different urban conditions.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F301.2;F299.23

【参考文献】