冲突分析建模技术研究

发布时间：2018-04-16 20:36

本文选题：冲突分析 + 系统yoyo模型　；参考：《南京航空航天大学》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：冲突作为一种普遍现象广泛地存在于政治、经济生活、军事、文化等各个领域。在政治领域,如中央政府与地方政府关于房地产限购问题、在野党同执政党之间冲突;在经济领域,如中国同欧盟关于风电产业的贸易争夺和贸易战,跨国公司、利益集团间争夺与占领市场份额,家庭成员间分配消费品;在军事领域,如战国时期七国争霸,东汉末年的三国争雄,宋朝时期宋、辽、金间的领土争夺,中日钓鱼岛冲突,南海领土争端,中印边界问题、叙利亚问题,朝鲜问题,伊朗核问题等;在文化领域,西方不同基督教派间的冲突;佛教、道教、基督教、伊斯兰教等不同宗教间的在不同地区的此消彼长,繁衍或泯灭;不同文明间的冲突(如中国文明同西方文明的冲突、古埃及文明同古希腊、波斯文明同古罗马文明的冲突)。可以说,冲突问题无处不在,渗透到我们生活的每个角落,大到宇宙争霸、国家战争,小到恋爱中情侣的感情问题、个人对于时间的安排,并在不同层面、不同程度地影响着人们的生活,并成为个人、管理者、决策者、学术界和政府部门高度关注的焦点。冲突是指两个或两个以上的个人或集团为了各自的利益采取相应的行动,以达到战胜他人目的所形成的一种状态,它产生于系统中各方所追求目标的对立性。由于冲突各方同处于一个系统中,各方是互相联系的。由于冲突体所追求的目标是对立的,各方又是互相制约,冲突各方既制约又联系,既对立又统一,形成了各种各样的冲突表现形式。为了更好地认识冲突和解决冲突,减少不必要的冲突升级,促进冲突各方更好地和平共处,维护所处系统的良好运转和发展,需要将冲突问题系统地加以研究,构建一套冲突分析的完整理论体系。基于丰富和完善冲突分析的理论体系,本文从冲突问题描述、对策分析、冲突模型优化、冲突演变控制等方面展开研究,主要的研究成果包括以下几个方面:(1)基于系统yoyo模型、经典冲突分析、粗糙集冲突分析的思想与方法,重构了F-H冲突分析模型和palawk冲突分析方法,并将其现有冲突分析方法进行有机统一;利用直觉模糊集,构建了直觉模糊冲突分析模型,定义了冲突函数和冲突联盟,有效地解决了现有冲突分析方法描述冲突问题过于生硬,冲突系统所提供的信息太抽象,以致无法找到系统中各决策者或联盟比较理想的策略集,同时将决策者对于不同的争端事件的重视程度也近作同等看待等问题;利用马儿科夫链,构建了动态冲突分析模型和动态直觉模糊冲突分析模型,有效地描述现实的冲突系统的动态变化、系统的冲突状况,分析冲突系统的局势转变与冲突系统的稳定性,预测冲突的可能局势,采取相应地策略。(2)针对既有冲突分析模型仅局限于研究和解决某一方面冲突问题,尚未形成一个统一的冲突分析理论框架,且现有的冲突分析模型存在着诸如难以编程进行计算机操作等问题,本文利用粗糙集、博弈论、经典冲突分析方法、图模型,构建了具有两套信息系统的一般冲突分冲突分析建模技术研究析模型,并针对冲突事件相互独立和相互关联两种情况的冲突问题,构建了不完备信息三维冲突分析模型和具有约束的冲突分析模型,设计了求解均衡冲突局势的算法,从而有机地统一了现有的冲突分析模型和方法,丰富、完善了冲突分析的理论体系。(3)超冲突问题与我们生活密切相关,研究超冲突分析模型具有重要的理论价值和应用价值。本文提出超冲突均衡的概念,根据冲突系统含有的超冲突体数目,利用yoyo模型、粗糙集、博弈论等理论的思想与方法,研究并构建了单层超冲突分析模型和两类双层超冲突分析模型,有效地描述和解决具有单个超冲突和多个超冲突体的超冲突问题,从而将冲突分析模型的建模对象从具有等地位、对称信息的情形延伸至力量失衡的情形,丰富和发展了冲突分析方法,拓展了应用范围。(4)监控和调节冲突系统的演化,使其朝着对我们有利的方向发展,是研究冲突问题的重要内容。本文利用控制论和一般系统理论的思想与方法,针对冲突系统内的冲突事件相互独立和含有多超级冲突体多一般冲突体的冲突问题,分别构建了冲突稳定模型和双层超冲突稳定模型,并用其解决货币战争和主制造商与供应商的冲突问题,从而增强了冲突分析模型的操作性和实用性。
[Abstract]:The conflict as a common phenomenon exists widely in the political, economic, military, cultural and other fields. In the field of politics, such as the central government and local government on the purchase of real estate, the conflict between the opposition party and the ruling party; in the economic field, such as China with the EU on wind power industry and trade for a trade war the multinational companies, interest groups and compete for market share, consumer goods distribution among family members; in the military field, such as the hegemony of the Warring States period, the Eastern Han Dynasty Three Kingdoms, the Song Dynasty song, Liao, Jin territory for the Diaoyu Island conflict, territorial disputes in the South China Sea, the Sino Indian border issue, Syria issue, North Korea, Iran nuclear issue; in the field of culture, conflict between Western different Christian sects of Buddhism, Taoism, Christianity; Islam in different regions of the trade-off between religions, reproduction or perish Destroy; conflict among different civilizations (such as Chinese civilization and Western civilization conflict, the ancient Egyptian civilization with ancient Greek, Persian civilization with ancient Rome civilization conflict). It can be said that the conflict is everywhere, into every corner of our lives, to the large universe of hegemony, national war, small to emotional problems in love couples the personal plan for the time, and at different levels, different degrees of impact on people's lives, and as individuals, managers, decision makers, the focus of attention in academic circles and government departments. The conflict refers to two or more than two individuals or groups for their own interests to take corresponding actions. A state in order to win others to form, it produces opposition parties in the system goal. Because the parties to the conflict at the same system, the parties are interconnected. Pursued by the conflict body. The subject is the opposite parties, and restrict each other, the parties to the conflict control and connection, unity of opposites, the formation of a variety of forms of conflict. In order to better understand the conflict and resolve conflicts, reduce unnecessary conflicts and upgrading, promote the parties to the conflict to better peace, good operation and development of maintenance system the need to study systematically the conflict, to build a complete theoretical system of a conflict. To enrich and improve the theory system based on conflict analysis, this article from the conflict problem description, countermeasure analysis, conflict model optimization, study the conflict evolution control, the research results mainly include the following aspects: (1) the system based on the yoyo model, the classic conflict analysis, ideas and methods of rough set conflict analysis, conflict analysis and reconstruction of the F-H model palawk conflict analysis method, and the existing conflict analysis Method of organic unity; using intuitionistic fuzzy sets, intuitionistic fuzzy conflict analysis model is constructed, the definition of conflict and conflict function alliance, effectively solves the conflict analysis method to describe the conflict is too stiff, provide the conflict information system is too abstract for each decision that can not find the system or ideal strategy alliance at the same time will be set, decision makers for the degree of attention of different dispute events also's equal; the horse pediatric Markov chains, construct dynamic conflict analysis model and dynamic intuitionistic fuzzy conflict analysis model, effectively describe the dynamic changes of the real system conflict, conflict system, stability analysis of system change conflict situation conflict with the system, may predict the conflict situation, adopt corresponding strategies. (2) according to the model of conflict analysis is limited to research and solve a party both Face the conflict, has not yet formed a unified theoretical framework and the existing conflict analysis, conflict analysis model has computer operation problems such as difficult programming, using rough set theory, game theory, the classical method of conflict analysis, graph model, construct a general conflict with the two sets of information system for the conflict analysis modeling research analysis model for conflict and conflict between independent and interrelated two situations, constructed the conflict of incomplete information model of conflict analysis and 3D analysis model with constraints, solving the equilibrium conflict situation in algorithm design, thus a unification of conflict analysis model and method, the existing rich, improve the theoretical system conflict analysis. (3) over the conflict is closely related with our life, study of conflict analysis model has important theoretical value and application value of this. A concept of conflict equilibrium, according to the number of super body containing conflict conflict system, using the yoyo model, rough sets, the ideas and methods of game theory, studied and constructed the monolayer conflict analysis model and two kinds of double super conflict analysis model, effectively describe conflict will has a single and multiple super conflict super conflict reconciliation, and conflict analysis model from the object position with the symmetric information case, extending to the power imbalance, enriches and develops the method of conflict analysis, expand the scope of application. (4) the evolution of monitoring and regulating system of conflict, make it towards a favorable direction for us development is an important content of research on the conflict. Theory and general system theory and method in this paper using the control, the conflict for the conflict within the system are independent of each other and contains many super multi general conflict conflict In order to solve the conflict problem, we construct the conflict stability model and the two-tier super conflict stability model respectively, and use it to solve the conflict between the currency war and the main manufacturer and supplier, so as to enhance the operability and practicability of the conflict analysis model.

【学位授予单位】：南京航空航天大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：N945.12

【参考文献】