土地供应政策对房价影响的GWR模型分析

发布时间：2018-04-20 17:30

本文选题：土地供应政策 + GWR模型　；参考：《南京农业大学学报(社会科学版)》2014年05期

【摘要】：运用地理加权回归(GWR)模型,以全国31个省级行政区为对象,探索土地供应政策对房价的影响机制,以及各影响因素在空间上的作用大小和空间分布状况,为土地政策参与房地产调控提供理论支持和帮助。研究表明:其他条件不变的前提下,土地供应量和结构对房价具有显著的负效应,且存在显著的空间变异;土地供给量系数的绝对值有从东北和华北向西南递减的趋势,而保障房供给系数的绝对值有从南方向东北和西北递减的趋势;基本经济层面上的人均地区生产总值和就业人口占总人口比重对房价具有显著的正向关系,城市人均住房建筑面积与房价存在显著的负向关系,且三个变量均存在显著的空间变异。研究的结论是:GWR模型可以改进传统的回归方法,可对房价影响因素的空间变化性进行良好的估计;东北地区增加土地供给量相对于西南地区来讲对房价的负向影响更大,南方保障房供给相对于北方来讲对房价的负向影响更大;完善土地供应政策,实行差别化调控是今后抑制房价过快上涨的应有之义。
[Abstract]:By using the GWR model of geographical weighted regression, taking 31 provincial administrative regions of China as the object, this paper explores the influence mechanism of land supply policy on housing price, and the effect and distribution of each influencing factor in space. For land policy to participate in real estate regulation and control to provide theoretical support and help. The results show that the land supply and structure have significant negative effect on house price, and there is significant spatial variation, and the absolute value of land supply coefficient decreases from northeast and north to southwest. On the other hand, the absolute value of indemnificatory apartment's supply coefficient has a decreasing trend from the south to the northeast and the northwest. On the basic economic level, the per capita GDP and the proportion of the employed population to the total population have a significant positive relationship with the house prices. There is a significant negative relationship between housing floor area and housing price, and there are significant spatial variations among the three variables. The conclusion of the study is that the proportion GWR model can improve the traditional regression method and make a good estimate of the spatial variability of the factors affecting housing prices; the increase of land supply in Northeast China has a greater negative impact on housing prices than in the southwest. The supply of indemnificatory apartment in the south has more negative influence on the house price than in the north, and it is necessary to perfect the land supply policy and implement differential regulation and control to restrain the house price rising too fast in the future.
【作者单位】：南京农业大学公共管理学院;
【基金】：国土资源部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201111011)
【分类号】：F301.0;F299.23

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