我国城市商品房价格与土地价格关系研究

发布时间：2018-04-23 21:01

  本文选题：商品房价格 + 土地价格　； 参考：《东北大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：1998年“国务院关于进一步深化城镇住房制度改革加快住房建设的通知”得以实施,标志着中国楼市市场化运作开始的,我国经济加速发展,居民收入不断增加,同时房价也快速上涨。不只是房价,随着土地出让制度不断改革深化,地价也开始一路上涨。城市商品房价格与土地价格作为房地产价格的两个重要组成部分,两者自身的影响因素和两者之间相互关系都对房地产市场研究有着重要的意义。本文旨在分别通过定性和定量研究房价与地价关系,给出房价与地价适宜水平的判断及地价占房价的适宜比例。分别就政府宏观调控、供地方面和企业开发投资提出相应的对策建议。本文首先对我国房地产市场构成及其影响因素、房地产开发程序及其对房地产开发的影响、商品房价格与土地价格二者的构成及各自的影响因素做了系统的介绍。然后,先定性地研究了商品房价格与土地价格之间的关系。紧接着定量地研究了商品房价格与土地价格之间的关系。定量研究方法是通过建立联立方程模型,用Eviews软件分析其结果,得出房价与地价之间是联立性的,即房价与地价存在双向关系,并得出了两者之间的关系公式。根据联立性方程,得出的结论是：地价对房价的参数估计结果是0.07。即在其他条件不变的情况下,地价上升或者下降1万元/m2,房价相应上升或者下降700元／m2。房价对地价的参数估计结果是0.16,即在其他条件不变的情况下,房价上升或者下降1万元／m2,地价相应上升或者下降1600元／m2。接着,通过对沈阳市商品房价格、土地价格、GDP.CPI及人均可支配收入等数据的收集,并对其同比增长进行比较分析,判断房价与地价的适宜水平。其中,商品房价格适宜水平的判断方程为：HP=1006.878+1.98GDP+14.46CPI-0.357PDI;土地价格适宜水平的判断方程为：LP=1657.454+0.106GDP+0.082HP。根据实际项目资料判断出地价占房价适宜比例,得出土地费用在商品房价格中所占的平均比例为28.36%,采用1倍标准差测算的比例区间为10.85%～45.86%。面对一路高歌的地价,房地产宏观调控正面临着空前的压力。地价作为房价的绝对性支出,想要真正的控制房价,应该从控制地价入手。最后,根据研究分析,针对政府宏观调控、供地方面和企业投资开发方面提出了相应的对策建议。
[Abstract]:In 1998, the "Circular of the State Council on further deepening the Reform of Urban Housing system and speeding up Housing Construction" was implemented, marking the beginning of the market-oriented operation of China's real estate market, the accelerated economic development of our country and the continuous increase in residents' income. At the same time, housing prices are also rising rapidly. Not only house prices, as the land transfer system continues to reform and deepen, land prices are also starting to rise. As two important components of real estate price, urban commercial housing price and land price have great significance to the study of real estate market. Through the qualitative and quantitative study of the relationship between house price and land price, this paper gives the judgment of the appropriate level of house price and land price and the appropriate proportion of land price to house price. The corresponding countermeasures and suggestions on government macro-control, land supply and enterprise development investment are put forward respectively. In this paper, the composition of real estate market and its influencing factors, the process of real estate development and its influence on real estate development, the composition of commodity house price and land price, and their respective influencing factors are introduced systematically in this paper. Then, the relationship between commodity house price and land price is studied qualitatively. Then the relationship between commercial housing price and land price is studied quantitatively. The quantitative research method is to establish the simultaneous equation model and analyze the results with Eviews software. It is concluded that there is a bidirectional relationship between house price and land price, and the relationship formula between them is obtained. According to the simultaneous equation, the conclusion is that the parameter estimate of land price to house price is 0. 07. That is, when other conditions remain unchanged, land prices rise or fall by 10,000 yuan / m2, and house prices rise or fall by 700 yuan / m2. The parameter estimate of house price to land price is 0.16, that is, when other conditions remain unchanged, the price of house price rises or falls 10, 000 yuan / m ~ 2, and the price of land price rises or decreases 1600 yuan / m ~ (2). Then, through collecting the data of commodity house price, land price and per capita disposable income in Shenyang, the paper compares and analyzes the relative increase of housing price and land price, and judges the appropriate level of house price and land price. Among them, the judgment equation of the suitable level of commercial housing price is: 1: HPX 1006.878 1.98GDP 14.46CPI-0.357PDI, and the judgment equation of land price suitability level is 1: LPn 1657.454 0.106GDP 0.082HP. According to the actual project data, the suitable proportion of land price to house price is determined, and the average proportion of land cost in commercial housing price is 28.36. The proportion range measured by standard deviation is 10.85% and 45.86%. In the face of the high price of land, real estate macro-control is facing unprecedented pressure. Land price is the absolute expenditure of house price. Finally, according to the research and analysis, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for the government macro-control, land supply and enterprise investment and development.
【学位授予单位】：东北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23;F301.3

【参考文献】

中国期刊全文数据库 前1条

1 李伟;;住房价格上涨的原因分析及完善调控措施建议[J];价格理论与实践;2006年07期

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本文编号：1793607