中美制造业由互补性向竞争性转变的趋势研究

发布时间：2018-04-24 00:17

本文选题：互补性关系 + 竞争性关系　；参考：《长沙理工大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：2008年金融危机的爆发，暴露出美国经济金融化及消费拉动战略的缺陷，美国政府试图将经济拉回到实体经济发展轨道，逆向选择现有国际分工，提出了“再工业化”战略。随着中国资源要素禀赋的收窄，房地产价格的攀升，环境的恶化，，人口红利也不断压缩，传统制造产业的比较优势逐步消褪，而现今中国又积累了丰厚的知识、技术及财富，提出了“战略性新兴产业”。随着中美两国均将制造业发展目标放在高端制造产业方面，在全球市场规模、原材料市场、人才资本等生产要素一定的前提下，两国制造业长期以来的互补性关系将转变。本论文以拓展的比较优势和制造业产业转移为依据，通过对改革开放至美国“再工业”期间中美对外贸易数据、中美制造业数据及2008年中美双边贸易数据比较，系统地分析了中美制造业长期的互补性关系的形成及原因。通过对历年的美国制造业就业人数变化、历年美国制造业相关指标、历年中美高科技出口占制成品出口的比重及2010年中美双边贸易主要商品构成比较，指出“再工业化”以后，中美长期的互补性关系正在逐步转变。基于上述结论，选取中美制造业出口结构相似度指标，运用核密度估计(Kernel density)方法，通过实证界定了中美制造业竞争性趋势。此外，基于产业竞争优势理论，从中美制造业在全球范围内的竞争力、出口地位、原材料需求及制造业产品供给等角度，进一步证实两国制造业竞争性趋势的形成。本文认为随着中美制造业的不断发展，尤其是美国制造业重振与中国战略性新兴产业的推行，两国制造业竞争趋势会逐步深化，但互补性也仍会作为一种形态存在。同时，指出虽然中美制造业处于竞争性趋势，但并不意味着中国与美国关系的对立，而是应该扩大合作，谋求共同发展。中国应基于中美制造业的竞争力分析，从制造业发展方向、科技创新、人力储备及原材料等方面，构建竞争性趋势下中国制造业发展思路。
[Abstract]:The outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008 exposed the defects of American economic financialization and consumption-driven strategy. The American government tried to pull the economy back into the real economic development orbit, reverse selected the existing international division of labor, and put forward the strategy of "reindustrialization". With the narrowing of China's resource factor endowment, the rise of real estate prices, the deterioration of the environment, the continuous compression of the demographic dividend, the gradual erosion of the comparative advantage of the traditional manufacturing industry, and the accumulation of rich knowledge, technology and wealth in China today, Put forward "strategic emerging industry". With both China and the United States focusing on the high-end manufacturing industry, the long-term complementary relationship between the two countries' manufacturing industries will change under the premise of certain factors of production such as global market size, raw material market, human capital and so on. Based on the comparative advantage of expansion and the industrial transfer of manufacturing industry, this paper compares the Sino-American foreign trade data, the Sino-American manufacturing data and the bilateral trade data in 2008 between China and the United States during the period of reform and opening up to the "re-industry" of the United States. This paper systematically analyzes the formation and causes of long-term complementary relationship between Chinese and American manufacturing industries. By comparing the changes in manufacturing employment in the past years, the relative indicators of manufacturing industry in the past years, the proportion of Sino-American high-tech exports in manufactured exports over the years and the main commodity composition of Sino-US bilateral trade in 2010, it is pointed out that after "re-industrialization", The long-term complementary relationship between China and the United States is gradually changing. Based on the above conclusions, this paper selects the similarity index of manufacturing export structure between China and the United States, and uses the Kernel density estimation method to define the competitive trend of manufacturing industry in China and the United States empirically. In addition, based on the theory of industrial competitive advantage, this paper further proves the formation of the competitive trend of the manufacturing industry of the two countries from the perspectives of the global competitiveness, export status, raw material demand and manufacturing product supply of China and the United States. This paper holds that with the continuous development of Sino-US manufacturing industry, especially the revival of American manufacturing industry and the implementation of China's strategic emerging industries, the competitive trend of manufacturing industry between the two countries will be deepened gradually, but complementarity will still exist as a form. At the same time, it is pointed out that although the manufacturing industry between China and the United States is in a competitive trend, it does not mean the antagonism between China and the United States, but should expand cooperation and seek common development. Based on the analysis of the competitiveness of Chinese and American manufacturing industry, China should construct the development thinking of Chinese manufacturing industry under the competitive trend from the aspects of manufacturing development direction, scientific and technological innovation, manpower reserve and raw materials.
【学位授予单位】：长沙理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F424;F471.2

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