武汉市商品住宅地价与房价的互动关系研究

发布时间：2018-04-24 06:29

本文选题：商品住宅地价 + 房价　；参考：《华中农业大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：自住房的商品化供应和土地市场化交易以来,在国家宏观经济平稳较快发展和居民可支配收入的快速增加的作用下,我国商品住宅市场和土地出让市场发展繁荣,使得城市商品住宅价格与土地价格持续攀升。商品住宅价格与地价的快速上涨以及它们之间的关系成为政府、房地产业界和学术界共同关心的热点和焦点。已有的学术界研究成果主要针对全国及某些大城市的地价房价关系,但对武汉市房价与地价关系的研究比较少,但对武汉市房价与地价关系的研究比较少,而且从宏观层面研究其关系的较多,从微观层面研究其关系的较少。鉴于此,本文中把武汉市商品住宅用地价格与商品住宅房价作为研究对象,重点计量分析了武汉市商品住宅地价与房价的因果关系进行计量分析,并对商品住宅地价与房价之间的相互影响进行深入探讨,从宏观和微观两个层面进行互动关系的研究,探索商品住宅地价在房价上涨中的作用,为政府规范房地产市场、建立公开公平的房地产交易环境、制定有效的房地产调控政策提供科学依据。本文采用定量分析及计量经济学中的Granger因果分析方法,对商品住宅价格及地价的关系进行了分析。首先通过武汉市宏观经济发展数据、房地产行业指标对武汉市房地产市场的运行状况进行宏观层面的分析,旨在为商品住宅价格及地价的关系研究提供全面的研究背景,为后面的实证分析提供必要的依据,然后采用Granger因果检验方法,对武汉市2006年第一季度至2013年第四季度商品住宅价格和地价进行因果检验,并建立误差修正模型,研究二者之间的短期与长期的时序互动关系。最后,根据Granger因果检验结果,采用定量分析的方法分析武汉市商品住宅地价占房价的比例,通过网上查询和实地调查搜集得到武汉市主城区2006年至2013年内部分通过土地“招拍挂”建成的商品住宅楼盘的地价和房价,计算地价占房价的比例,并从宏观和微观两个层面探索武汉市商品住宅地价房价比的变化特征,解释两者之间的变动规律,为分析地价在房价上涨中的作用提供参考。根据以上的研究,得出的结果表明： (1)短期来看,武汉市地价与房价之间存在相互影响作用,地价对房价的影响作用较为显著,房价围绕长期均衡的短期波动比较稳定,地价则相反；长期来看,地价与房价之间存在长期均衡关系,且地价是房价的Granger原因。 (2)武汉市地价房价比处于较低水平,土地成本在房价中所占比例不大,对房价有一定的影响,但作用有限,武汉市的部分高房价并不是地价导致的,且地价比房价更为敏感,更易受到社会经济发展的影响。地价占房价的比例未出现随时间的变化而变化的特征,不具备一定的规律性,武汉市地价占房价的比例不符合房价越高,地价所占的比例越高的一般规律,存在高房价项目利润过大的情形,有的项目,房价越高,地价房价比越低。因此,本文从研究结果出发,提出调控土地市场,发挥地价对房价的能动作用,并制定相关政策,抑制房价过热,调节住房市场供应,建立房地产价格评价体系,客观合理分析房价。
[Abstract]:Since the commercialized supply of housing and the market trading of land, with the rapid and rapid development of the national macro-economy and the rapid increase of the disposable income of the residents, the commodity housing market and the land leasing market in China have developed and flourished, making the urban housing price and land price rising continuously. The price of commodity housing and the land price are fast. The rapid rise and the relationship between them have become the focus and focus of the government, the real estate industry and the academia. The existing academic research results mainly focus on the land price relationship between the country and some big cities, but there are few studies on the relationship between the house price and the land price in Wuhan, but the research on the relationship between the house price and the land price in Wuhan is compared. In view of this, the paper focuses on the quantitative analysis of the causal relationship between the land price and the house price in Wuhan and the commodity housing. The interaction between the land price and the house price is deeply discussed, and the interaction relationship between the macro and micro two levels is studied, and the role of the commodity housing land price in the price rise is explored. It provides a scientific basis for the government to standardize the real estate market, establish a fair and fair real estate transaction environment and formulate an effective real estate regulation policy.
In this paper, the relationship between commodity housing price and land price is analyzed by means of Granger causality analysis in quantitative analysis and econometrics. First, through the macro economic development data of Wuhan, the real estate industry index has made a macro analysis on the running status of the real estate market in Wuhan, aiming at the price and land of the commodity housing. The relationship research provides a comprehensive research background, provides the necessary basis for the subsequent empirical analysis, and then uses the Granger causality test method to test the commodity housing prices and land prices in Wuhan from the first quarter to the fourth quarter of 2013 in 2006, and establishes an error correction model to study the short-term and long-term time between the two. In the end, according to the result of Granger causality test, the proportion of the land price in Wuhan is analyzed by quantitative analysis, and the land price and house price in the main city of Wuhan from 2006 to 2013 are collected through online inquiry and field investigation. The ratio of land price to house price is calculated, and the change characteristics of the price ratio of Wuhan commodity housing land price in Wuhan city are explored from the macro and micro levels, and the change law between the two is explained, which provides a reference for the analysis of the role of land price in the rise of house prices.
According to the above study, the results show that:
(1) in the short term, there is a mutual influence between the land price and the house price in Wuhan, and the effect of land price on the house price is more significant. The price of the house price is more stable around the long-term equilibrium and the land price is opposite. In the long run, there is a long-term equilibrium between the land price and the house price, and the land price is the Granger reason of the house price.
(2) the ratio of land price to house price in Wuhan is low, the proportion of land cost in house price is small, it has certain influence on house price, but the effect is limited, the part of high house price in Wuhan is not caused by the land price, and the land price is more sensitive than the house price, and it is more susceptible to the influence of the social economic development. The proportion of land price in the house price has not appeared with the time. The characteristics of change and change do not have certain regularity. The proportion of land price in Wuhan is not in accordance with the higher price of the house price, the higher the proportion of land price, the higher the price of the high price of the project, the higher the house price, the lower the price ratio of the land price.
Therefore, this paper, starting from the research results, proposes to regulate the land market, play the dynamic role of land price to the house price, and formulate relevant policies to restrain the overheating of house prices, regulate the supply of housing market, establish the evaluation system of real estate price, and objectively and rationally analyze the house price.

【学位授予单位】：华中农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.27;F301.4

【参考文献】