我国经济政策对商品房价格波动影响的理论及实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-30 18:07

本文选题：商品房价格 + 经济政策　；参考：《南京财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：自1998年开始，中国政府实施房地产市场改革，逐渐结束公有住房分配制度，实行住宅货币化。随着经济的快速增长和住宅货币制度改革的推进，在商品房市场飞速发展的同时也使得我国房价急速上涨。商品房价格的上涨不仅影响到商品房市场本身的发展，同时也很大程度上影响到居民的购买力，甚至短期内产生商品房市场的“经济泡沫”。为抑制商品房价格的非理性上涨，保证商品房市场的健康发展，国家出台了一系列的宏观调控政策，但商品房价格并未回归到理性水平。本文主要针对商品房市场暴露出来的问题，从理论和实证两个方面说明了经济政策对商品房市场的调控问题。首先，通过建立动态博弈模型，在动态不一致性问题的框架下，从理论上分析了我国经济政策调控商品房价格收效甚微的影响因素。其主要结论包括：如果一个政府过度的追求经济增长或低失业率，整个国家就很可能承受一个较高的房价。同时，政府的失信行为也使得调控政策的效用减弱。政府调控房价的决心、政策的持续性以及社会公众对商品房价格的关注程度很大程度上也影响了房价。本文从宏观调控层面通过建立VAR模型，利用2000.01—2012.07的月度数据，并运用脉冲响应函数及Granger因果关系检验，，研究了国家宏观经济政策变化冲击对商品房价格的动态影响。实证表明：房产综合税的征收对抑制房价上涨起到的作用并不显著，并且存在明显的滞后性，此分析结论和我国现状相符，国家急需进行房产税征收的改革。社会固定资产投资总额是反映中国政府追求较高经济增长率的变量，由结论可知，社会固定资产投资总额对房价的上涨有明显的推动作用，也就是说，如果一个政府过度的追求经济增长会导致房价的明显上涨，此结论与本文理论分析相吻合。利率的变化冲击在短期内对房价的影响微弱，并不显著，在长期内利率上涨能明显的抑制房价的上涨，这也从一个侧面反映了人们的预期能有效的影响房价。汇率用于反映国际资金对我国商品房价格的预期及影响，但此变量不能通过显著性检验，因此，剔除此因素。短期内，信贷总额商品房价格影响不明显，长期来看，存在明显的助推作用。最后，对全文进行了总结，并根据本文主要结论提出相应政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since 1998, the Chinese government has implemented real estate market reform, gradually ending the public housing distribution system and implementing housing monetization. With the rapid growth of economy and the advance of the reform of the housing monetary system, the rapid development of the commercial housing market also makes the house price rise rapidly in our country. The rise of the commodity housing price not only affects the development of the commercial housing market itself, but also affects the purchasing power of the residents to a great extent, and even produces the "economic bubble" of the commodity housing market in the short term. In order to restrain the irrational rise of the commodity housing price and ensure the healthy development of the commercial housing market, the state has issued a series of macro-control policies, but the commodity housing price has not returned to the rational level. Aiming at the problems exposed in the commercial housing market, this paper explains the regulation and control of the commercial housing market by the economic policy from both the theoretical and the empirical aspects. First of all, by establishing a dynamic game model, under the framework of dynamic inconsistency, this paper theoretically analyzes the influence factors of China's economic policy to control the price of commercial housing with little effect. The main conclusions include: if a government too much pursuit of economic growth or low unemployment, the country is likely to bear a higher house prices. At the same time, the government's dishonest behavior also weakens the effectiveness of the regulatory policy. The determination of the government to regulate the house price, the persistence of the policy and the attention of the public to the price of the commodity house also affect the house price to a great extent. Based on the VAR model, the monthly data from 2000.01-2012.07, the impulse response function and the Granger causality test, this paper studies the dynamic influence of the impact of the macroeconomic policy changes on the commodity housing prices. The empirical results show that the collection of comprehensive real estate tax has no significant effect on restraining the rise of house prices, and there is obvious lag. This conclusion is consistent with the present situation of our country, and the country urgently needs to reform the collection of property tax. The total amount of social fixed assets investment is a variable reflecting the Chinese government's pursuit of a higher economic growth rate. From the conclusion, it can be seen that the total amount of social fixed assets investment has a significant role in promoting the rise of house prices, that is, If an excessive pursuit of economic growth by a government will lead to a marked rise in house prices, this conclusion is consistent with the theoretical analysis in this paper. The impact of interest rate changes on house prices in the short term is weak, not significant. In the long run, interest rate increases can significantly curb the rise of house prices, which also reflects that people's expectations can effectively affect house prices. The exchange rate is used to reflect the expectation and influence of international funds on the price of commercial housing in China, but this variable can not pass the significance test, so this factor is excluded. In the short-term, the impact of the total credit price of commercial housing is not obvious, long-term, there is a significant boost. Finally, the paper summarizes the full text and puts forward corresponding policy recommendations according to the main conclusions of this paper.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

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