2015年上半年我国宏观经济与财政政策分析报告——下半年经济稳增长与化解地方财政压力

发布时间：2018-05-02 17:26

本文选题：中国宏观经济 + 稳增长　；参考：《经济研究参考》2015年44期

【摘要】：2015年第二季度,发达经济体总体上企稳回升。我国GDP同比增长7.0%,总体来说较之一季度保持平稳,某些领域出现改善迹象。随着一系列稳增长措施加强落实、海外经济复苏带动我国出口,我们对全年完成7.0%左右的增长目标有信心。我们预测我国2015年三四季度GDP同比增速分别为7.0%和7.1%,全年GDP同比增速为7.0%左右。这一预测的核心基准假设为:下半年房地产增速稳定在5%左右,消费增速稳定在11%,出口名义增速为5%,基建投资增速为20%。下半年财政政策应主要从以下三个方面来完成保增长、调结构的总任务:(1)继续妥善实施地方政府债务置换,保障基建投资财政资金来源;(2)适度扩大年度赤字规模,盘活存量资金,加快预算进度;(3)大力发展PPP等模式,全方位调动社会资本参与基建的积极性。目前我国地方财政面临一些压力,主要来自于存量的债务压力和新增的支出压力。我们主要从以下三个方面讨论我国目前地方政府遇到的财政压力和未来的解决办法:(1)地方政府财政行为;(2)存量债务压力的化解;(3)新增支出压力的财政保障。
[Abstract]:In the second quarter of 2015, advanced economies generally stabilised and rebounded. China's GDP rose 7.0 percent from a year earlier, generally flat compared with the first quarter, with some areas showing signs of improvement. With the implementation of a series of steady growth measures and the recovery of the overseas economy, we are confident that we will achieve the growth target of about 7.0 percent for the whole year. We forecast that China's GDP growth rate in the third and fourth quarters of 2015 is 7.0% and 7.1% respectively, and the annual GDP growth rate is about 7.0%. The core assumptions of this forecast are: real estate growth is stable at about 5 percent in the second half of the year, consumption growth is stable at 11 percent, nominal export growth is 5 percent, and infrastructure investment growth is 20 percent. In the second half of the year, the fiscal policy should mainly complete growth protection from the following three aspects; the overall task of adjusting the structure should be: 1) continue to properly implement the replacement of local government debt, and ensure that the source of financial funds for infrastructure investment is to expand the scale of the annual deficit moderately. Invigorate the stock fund, accelerate the budget progress and vigorously develop the PPP model, and mobilize the enthusiasm of social capital to participate in the capital construction in all directions. At present, the local finance of our country faces some pressure, mainly from the stock debt pressure and the new expenditure pressure. From the following three aspects, we mainly discuss the financial pressure encountered by local governments in China and the future solutions: 1) Fiscal behavior of local governments and 2) the solution of the pressure of stock debt. 3) the financial guarantee of the pressure of new expenditure.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院财税研究中心;中国社会科学院经济研究所;
【基金】：“我国宏观经济与财政政策分析”课题的阶段性研究成果,课题组组长:闫坤
【分类号】：F124;F812.0

【相似文献】