我国中高收入家庭的住房财富效应及其结构性差异

发布时间：2018-05-02 20:26

本文选题：住房 + 收入分层　；参考：《华中师范大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,全球金融危机与欧洲主权债务危机层层叠加,使得世界经济形势异常严峻,住房的财富效应再度成为国内外高度关注的热点。尤其在我国,房地产市场发展迅猛,房价不断攀升,尽管国家对住房市场进行持续宏观调控,其依然呈现整体繁荣的发展态势。目前,是否需要进一步加强宏观调控防止可能出现的住房泡沫；还是注重住房对宏观经济内源性增长的稳定作用,促进宏观经济稳定有待考察。显然,在我国区域经济差异扩大,且各地生活习惯差异较大的情况下,需要从区域的发展现状及不同家庭收入水平两方面进行合理分析,从而为我国住房市场制定相应政策提供科学的数据支持。因此,本文建立一个关于消费的自回归分布滞后(ARDL(2,2,2,2))模型,利用1999-2010年31个省市自治区的中高收入家庭的收入分层共计93个截面的面板数据,采用动态GMM估计方法估计我国住房的财富效应。同时按照居民收入水平和所在地区分组回归,试图发现财富效应在不同收入群体和地区间的区别,并依此提出相应的政策建议,针对不同的收入群体和地区实行差别化的房地产政策。实证研究显示,(1)长期内我国整体并不存在住房财富效应,但短期内居民家庭存在抑制当前消费的调整行为；(2)对高收入以及中等收入家庭,房价每增长10%,长期内两类家庭分别减少1.45%-1.96%,～1.16%～1.164%的消费支出,而对中偏高收入家庭,长期内则增加消费支出1.03%1.08%；(3)对中部地区,房价每增长10%,长期内该区域家庭将增加0.60%～0.67%的消费支出,而东部地区房价变动与居民消费支出不存在统计上关系,西部地区仅存在短期上的抑制性调整行为,即减少0.03%～0.18%消费支出。基于此,本文提出相应的政策建议：从整体来看,政府不应寄希望于抬高房价使得住房财富增值来促进居民消费,带动经济增长。从长远角度而言,政府应合理控制房价,促进高收入家庭闲置资本向技术附加值较高的产业转移,提高投资效率,增强综合国力。从地区结构而言,为促进住房成为扩大内需的重要手段,政府应积极促进中部地区住房建设,应加强东部地区居民居住观念和消费观念等方面的转变,加强西部地区社会保障制度建设。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis superimposed layer by layer, which made the world economic situation extremely grim, and the wealth effect of housing has once again become a hot spot at home and abroad. Especially in our country, the real estate market is developing rapidly, the house price is rising constantly, although the country carries on the sustained macro-control to the housing market, it still presents the overall prosperous development trend. At present, whether it is necessary to further strengthen the macro-control to prevent the possible housing bubble, or to pay attention to the stabilizing role of housing on the macroeconomic endogenous growth, and to promote macroeconomic stability remains to be investigated. Obviously, under the condition that the regional economic difference is enlarged and the living habits are quite different, we need to make a reasonable analysis from two aspects: the current situation of regional development and the different income levels of families. In order to provide scientific data support for China's housing market to formulate corresponding policies. Therefore, an autoregressive distribution lag model of consumption is established in this paper. The panel data of 93 sections of middle and high income households in 31 provinces and autonomous regions from 1999 to 2010 are used. The dynamic GMM estimation method is used to estimate the wealth effect of housing in China. At the same time, according to the income level of residents and the regional grouping regression, the paper tries to find out the difference of wealth effect among different income groups and regions, and puts forward corresponding policy recommendations. Different income groups and regions to implement a differentiated real estate policy. Empirical research shows that there is no housing wealth effect in China in the long run, but in the short term, households have the adjustment behavior to restrain current consumption. For every increase in house prices, in the long run, the two categories of households will decrease by 1.45-1.96 respectively 1.16percent of consumer expenditure, while for middle-to-high income families, long-term consumption expenditure will increase by 1.031.0880.The central region will increase its consumption expenditure by 0.600.67 percent in the long run for every 10 percent increase in house prices, and in the long run, the households in the region will increase their consumption expenditure by 0.600.67 percent in the long run. However, there is no statistical relationship between the change of house price and the consumption expenditure in the eastern region, but there is only a short-term restraining adjustment behavior in the western region, that is, the consumption expenditure is reduced by 0.03% or 0.18%. Based on this, this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations: from the overall point of view, the government should not hope to raise house prices to increase the value of housing wealth in order to promote residents' consumption and promote economic growth. In the long run, the government should control house prices reasonably, promote the transfer of idle capital of high-income households to industries with higher added value of technology, improve investment efficiency and enhance comprehensive national strength. In terms of regional structure, in order to promote housing to become an important means to expand domestic demand, the government should actively promote housing construction in the central region, and strengthen the transformation of residents' concept of housing and consumption in the eastern region. We will strengthen the construction of the social security system in the western region.
【学位授予单位】：华中师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

【参考文献】