昆明市房地产周期波动实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-08 07:20

本文选题：房地产周期 + 经济周期　；参考：《云南财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：房地产在国民经济发展中具有举足轻重的地位，房地产业已经成为中国大部分地区的支柱型产业，房地产的稳健发展关系到整个经济的发展。近年来房地产的价格出现了过快增长的现象。房地产市场作为国家宏观调控的重点，研究房地产周期波动与经济周期波动的关系，分析影响房地产周期波动的因素具有非常重要的现实意义。本文对昆明市房地产市场周期波动的研究献上一份力，同时也在实践中为政府引到房地产市场稳定发展提供借鉴和参考。当前我国对房地产周期波动的研究主要集中在定性化研究上，而且很大一部分研究是行业内部研究，对各影响因素的定量分析较少。在理论部分，本文首先介绍了国内外对于房地产周期和经济周期的理论研究，包括了二者的定义、类型、运行原理。然后又进行了房地产周期与经济周期的相互作用的阐释。接着文章描述了当前国家宏观经济、昆明市区域性经济现状和昆明市房地产市场现状以及不足。同时，，本文归纳搜集了2000年——2012年来我国政府发布的房地产相关政策，为后文研究做铺垫。在实证部分，本文选取了2000年到2012年关于影响经济周期波动的主要因素，选取运用GDP作为因变量，选取房地产投资、全社会固定资产投资、通货膨胀率和利率四项作为自变量进行VAR模型分析。接着，本文选取同时期关于影响房地产周期波动的主要因素，选取国房景气指数作为因变量，然后在影响房地产周期波动的三大类指标的基础上，综合选取了房地产投资、生产总值固定资产投资、通货膨胀率、利率、竣工面积、商品房平均价格、商品房销售面积、人均可支配收，把这几项因素作为自变量进行模型分析。最后，文章将经济周期与房地产周期相结合分析，运用协整理论，建立了模型并检验。由此发现，虽然房地产周期波动幅度较大，但是与经济周期增长呈现一致性，且高于经济增长速度。房地产市场的健康发展对我国经济发展起着至关重要的作用。本文创新之处还在于，文章将政策因素做了定量性分析。本文研究了房地产政策对房地产周期的影响，本文运用2000年到2013年2月的房地产的主要指标——国房景气指数，共153个指数，进行平滑处理，运用HP滤波法对房地产周期进行了平稳性研究。根据波动情况将2000年到2013年初划分为5个中长周期，结合了每一时期的政策进行分析。接着，本文将政策定量化，运用Eviews进行相关性分析。文章对当前昆明市房地产周与经济周期期情况做了总结阐释，通过对房地产波动的影响因素和宏观经济的分析，给予了一定调整周期波动，维持市场健康发展的建议和政策。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry plays an important role in the development of national economy. The real estate industry has become the pillar industry in most areas of China. The steady development of the real estate industry is related to the development of the whole economy. In recent years, the price of real estate has increased too fast. The real estate market is the focal point of national macro-control. It is of great practical significance to study the relationship between the real estate cycle fluctuation and the economic cycle fluctuation, and to analyze the factors that affect the real estate cycle fluctuation. This paper makes a contribution to the study of the periodic fluctuation of real estate market in Kunming, and at the same time provides a reference for the government to lead to the stable development of the real estate market in practice. At present, the research on the periodic fluctuation of real estate in our country is mainly focused on qualitative research, and a large part of the research is the research within the industry, and the quantitative analysis of the influencing factors is less. In the theoretical part, this paper firstly introduces the theoretical research of real estate cycle and economic cycle at home and abroad, including the definition, type and operation principle of the two. Then it explains the interaction between real estate cycle and economic cycle. Then the article describes the current state macroeconomic, Kunming regional economic situation and Kunming real estate market status and deficiencies. At the same time, this paper summarizes the relevant policies issued by our government from 2000 to 2012, which pave the way for the later research. In the empirical part, this paper selects the main factors that affect the economic cycle fluctuation from 2000 to 2012, selects the GDP as the dependent variable, selects the real estate investment, the whole society fixed asset investment. Inflation rate and interest rate as independent variables are analyzed by VAR model. Then, this paper selects the main factors that affect the real estate cycle fluctuation in the same period, selects the national housing boom index as the dependent variable, and then on the basis of the three kinds of indicators that affect the real estate cycle fluctuation, it synthetically selects the real estate investment. Gross domestic product fixed asset investment, inflation rate, interest rate, completed area, average price of commercial house, sale area of commercial house, per capita disposable income are analyzed as independent variables. Finally, the paper combines the economic cycle with the real estate cycle, establishes the model and tests it by cointegration theory. It is found that although the real estate cycle fluctuates greatly, it is consistent with the economic cycle growth and is higher than the economic growth rate. The healthy development of the real estate market plays a vital role in the economic development of our country. The innovation of this paper also lies in the quantitative analysis of policy factors. This paper studies the impact of real estate policy on the real estate cycle. This paper uses the national housing boom index, the main index of real estate from 2000 to February 2013, to smooth out 153 indexes. HP filtering method is used to study the stability of real estate cycle. According to the volatility, the period from 2000 to early 2013 is divided into five medium-and long-term cycles, combined with the policy analysis for each period. Then, this article quantifies the policy, uses Eviews to carry on the correlation analysis. This paper summarizes and explains the current situation of real estate week and economic cycle in Kunming, and gives some suggestions and policies to adjust the cycle fluctuation and maintain the healthy development of the market through the analysis of the influencing factors of real estate fluctuation and macro economy.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

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