我国房地产周期波动与经济周期波动的相互关系研究

发布时间：2018-05-12 01:21

本文选题：房地产周期波动 + 经济周期波动　；参考：《湘潭大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来，房地产业在我国取得迅速发展，是促进国民经济增长和改善人民生活的基础产业之一。根据国家统计局数据资料，2012年，全国房地产开发投资额为7.2万亿元，，同比增长16.2%，对于它的支柱地位，已是不争的事实。从上个世纪30年代开始，房地产周期波动与经济周期波动之间的内在联系开始显现出来，即房地产的周期波动除了受自身因素的影响外，还受到整个国民经济的影响，反过来又会影响整个国民经济。作为我国主要支柱产业之一，房地产业与国民经济之间是一个相互促进、相互制约的关系。因此探讨房地产周期波动的规律以及与经济周期波动的内在联系，使其能产生一个良性互动，将有利于房地产业及整个国民经济健康持续发展。本文以房地产周期波动与经济周期波动为理论基础，对我国房地产周期波动与经济周期波动的相互影响效应进行了分析，然后选取商品房销售面积增长率作为反映房地产周期的指标，选取全国GDP增长率作为反映经济周期的指标，实证检验了我国房地产周期与经济周期的关系。同时，本文将经济因素细分为国内生产总值、全国商品房平均销售价格(p)、城镇居民家庭人均可分配收入(sr)以及城市人口年末数(cs)，运用协整检验和格兰杰因果检验的方法研究了商品房销售面积（sx）与gdp、p、sr、cs之间的关系。实证结果表明，商品房销售面积(sx)与gdp、p、sr、cs之间存在长期稳定的协整关系，房地产业与国民经济之间是一个相互影响的双向关系。最后，结合当前我国的房地产发展现状和本文研究的主要结论，提出相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the real estate industry has made rapid development in China, which is one of the basic industries to promote the growth of national economy and improve the people's life. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the national investment in real estate development reached 7.2 trillion yuan in 2012, an increase of 16.2 yuan from the same period last year, which is an indisputable fact about its pillar position. Since the 1930s, the internal relationship between the cycle fluctuation of real estate and the fluctuation of economic cycle has begun to appear, that is, the periodic fluctuation of real estate is affected not only by its own factors, but also by the whole national economy. In turn, it will affect the national economy as a whole. As one of the main pillar industries in China, the real estate industry and the national economy promote and restrict each other. Therefore, it is beneficial to the healthy and sustainable development of the real estate industry and the whole national economy to probe into the law of the cycle fluctuation of real estate and the internal relation between the fluctuation of the real estate and the fluctuation of the economic cycle so that it can produce a benign interaction. Based on the theory of real estate cycle fluctuation and business cycle fluctuation, this paper analyzes the interaction effect of real estate cycle fluctuation and economic cycle fluctuation. Then select the commercial housing sales area growth rate as the indicator to reflect the real estate cycle, and select the national GDP growth rate as the indicator to reflect the economic cycle, and empirically test the relationship between the real estate cycle and the economic cycle in China. At the same time, the economic factors are subdivided into gross domestic product (GDP). The average selling price of commercial housing in China, the per capita distributable income of urban households (sr) and the number of urban population at the end of the year are as follows. The relationship between the sales area of commercial housing and GDP / srcs is studied by using the method of co-integration test and Granger causality test (Granger causality test). The empirical results show that there is a long and stable cointegration relationship between commercial housing sales area (SX) and GDP / srcs. The relationship between real estate industry and national economy is a two-way relationship. Finally, combined with the current situation of real estate development in China and the main conclusions of this study, the relevant policy recommendations are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：湘潭大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124.8;F299.23

【参考文献】