国内外房地产泡沫破灭触发因素分析

发布时间：2018-05-15 05:04

本文选题：房地产泡沫 + 数据指标　；参考：《河北大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：近几年来，中国的房地产业发展迅速，房价持续走高，房地产过热的现象受到社会各部门的广泛关注。随着全国房地产市场投资过热以及投机现象的出现，，各项统计指标居高不下，甚至超过了国际公认的警戒线水平，房地产泡沫日渐呈现。泡沫一旦破裂，对国民经济的发展将会产生严重的危害，进而引发全国范围内的经济危机。因此，通过对房地产泡沫破灭触发因素的总结和探讨，逐步挤压泡沫，对中国房地产业甚至是国民经济的持续稳定发展都具有重要及深远的影响。本文首先借助土地购置增长率、房地产开发投资增长率、住房空置率等数据指标论证当前中国房地产业已经存在房地产泡沫；其次，针对国内外出现过的比较有影响力及代表性的房地产泡沫破灭具体案例进行深入探讨分析，借助国外日本以及国内海南、鄂尔多斯等房地产泡沫破灭的具体案例，分析研究触发房地产泡沫破灭的主要因素，为中国房地产泡沫问题提供借鉴。本文从货币政策、“热钱”流动以及税收政策三个方面分析中国房地产泡沫破灭潜在触发因素，根据最新国内外形势，从防止房地产价格大幅上涨和房地产泡沫破灭两个角度提出合理化建议。通过防控热钱流入、加大保障房建设力度、推进新型城镇化建设及城市更新改造等方面防止房地产价格大幅上涨，从严防“热钱”快速流出、建立健全房地产泡沫预警机制、注意紧缩性政策的叠加效应、区域差别化调控措施四个角度防止房地产泡沫破灭，以保证房地产业的健康平稳发展。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's real estate industry has developed rapidly, housing prices continue to rise, the phenomenon of real estate overheating has been widely concerned by various social departments. With the appearance of overheated investment and speculation in the national real estate market, various statistical indicators remain high, even exceeding the internationally recognized warning level, and the real estate bubble is emerging day by day. Once the bubble burst, it will cause serious harm to the development of national economy, and then cause the economic crisis in the whole country. Therefore, through summing up and discussing the trigger factors of real estate bubble burst, squeezing the bubble step by step has an important and far-reaching influence on the sustained and stable development of China's real estate industry and even the national economy. This paper firstly proves that there is a real estate bubble in Chinese real estate industry with the help of land acquisition growth rate, real estate investment growth rate, housing vacancy rate and so on. According to the domestic and foreign relatively influential and representative real estate bubble burst specific cases of in-depth analysis, with the help of foreign Japan and domestic Hainan, Ordos real estate bubble burst specific cases, This paper analyzes the main factors that trigger the bursting of real estate bubble and provides reference for China's real estate bubble. This paper analyzes the potential trigger factors for the bursting of China's real estate bubble from three aspects: monetary policy, "hot money" flow and tax policy, according to the latest domestic and foreign situation. From the prevention of real estate prices and real estate bubble burst two angles to put forward rationalization proposals. By preventing and controlling the inflow of hot money, increasing the intensity of indemnificatory apartment construction, promoting the construction of new urbanization and urban renewal, and so on, to prevent real estate prices from rising substantially, and to establish and improve the real estate bubble warning mechanism by strictly preventing the rapid outflow of "hot money". Pay attention to the superposition effect of the contractility policy and the regional differential control measures to prevent the real estate bubble from bursting in order to ensure the healthy and steady development of the real estate industry.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F299.1

【参考文献】