基于实物期权的经济适用住房决策模型研究

发布时间：2018-05-15 06:23

本文选题：经济适用住房 + 实物期权　；参考：《沈阳建筑大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：经济适用住房作为我国保障性安居工程建设的重点内容,起着解决城市低收入家庭住房难题的保障性作用。从国家推行保障性住房政策以来,经济适用住房从投资规模到建设力度都在不断加强,但是由于缺乏理论指导和实践经验,经济适用住房在建设过程中问题层出不穷,主要表现在供需严重失衡,政府监管机制缺失、激励约束机制不完善,选址不合理、户型面积失控,银行信贷、金融体系不健全,经济适用住房建设运营体系不完善等。本文正是基于此,依托实物期权决策方法分析框架,对经济适用住房的价值决策进行分析研究,同时结合期权博弈思想,对经济适用住房实施过程中政府与房地产开发企业这两个实施参与主体构成的委托代理关系及问题进行了分析,以期找到经济适用住房制度设计本身问题出现的原因及解决办法。本文在阐述了经济适用住房及实物期权决策方法的理论研究的基础上,分析了我国经济适用住房的发展历程及实施现状,探寻了我国经济适用住房建设实施过程中的主要问题。建立了基于云理论的经济适用住房实物期权价值决策模型。针对经济适用住房项目投资、收益随机变动的特征,在总结现有云理论方法的基础上结合实物期权价值决策方法,模糊化经济适用住房的开发成本及现金流量这些影响项目实物期权价值的因素,构建出价值决策模型同时绘制出正态云图,将经济适用住房项目最可能出现的价值限定在一个较小的范围内,使房地产开发企业能够准确掌握项目价值,从而做出投资决策,最后通过数值分析验证模型的有效性。建立了基于期权博弈的经济适用住房政府监管决策模型。政府和房地产开发企业之间的利益冲突与信息不对称形成了委托代理关系,经济适用住房自身特征决定了项目的经营权和监督权的分离。在考虑信息对称和信息不对称两种情形影响下,采用实物期权博弈方法,分别建立信息对称和信息不对称下的决策模型。研究表明,在成本与收入二维信息不对称下,政府应该依据观测到经济适用住房项目经营收益和成本来计算对应的开发阈值,并据以制订与代理人之间的合同,在最优开发阂值的开发协议框架下提供相应的保证,合理的开发协议可以确保房地产开发企业在低成本、低收益情况下实施经济适用住房项目建设目标,数值分析证明了模型的有效性。
[Abstract]:As an important part of the construction of affordable housing in China, affordable housing plays an important role in solving the housing problems of low-income families in cities. Since the implementation of the indemnificatory housing policy, the economic housing has been strengthened from the scale of investment to the intensity of construction. However, due to the lack of theoretical guidance and practical experience, the problems of affordable housing in the construction process emerge one after another. It is mainly reflected in the serious imbalance of supply and demand, the lack of government supervision mechanism, the imperfect incentive and restraint mechanism, the unreasonable location selection, the runaway of the household area, the unsound bank credit, the imperfect financial system, the imperfect operation system of the economic and applicable housing construction, etc. Based on this, this paper analyzes and studies the value decision of affordable housing based on the analysis framework of real option decision method, and combines the idea of option game. This paper analyzes the principal-agent relationship and problems between the government and the real estate development enterprises in the process of implementing affordable housing. In order to find the economic and applicable housing system design itself causes and solutions. On the basis of expounding the theory research of economical housing and real option decision method, this paper analyzes the development course and present situation of economic housing in China, and probes into the main problems in the implementation process of economic and suitable housing construction in China. Based on cloud theory, a decision model of real option value of affordable housing is established. In view of the characteristics of stochastic changes in investment and income of affordable housing projects, this paper summarizes the existing cloud theory and combines with the real option value decision method. Fuzzifying the development cost and cash flow of affordable housing, which are the factors that affect the real option value of the project, the value decision model is constructed and the normal cloud map is drawn at the same time. The most likely value of affordable housing projects is limited to a relatively small range, so that the real estate development enterprises can accurately grasp the project value, and then make investment decisions. Finally, the validity of the model is verified by numerical analysis. Based on the option game, the model of government supervision and decision of economic and applicable housing is established. The conflict of interest and the asymmetry of information between the government and the real estate development enterprises form the principal-agent relationship. The characteristics of the economic and applicable housing determine the separation of the management right and the supervision power of the project. Considering the influence of information symmetry and information asymmetry, the decision models under information symmetry and information asymmetry are established by using real option game method. The study shows that under the asymmetry of two-dimensional information between cost and income, the government should calculate the corresponding development threshold based on the observed operating income and cost of affordable housing projects and draw up contracts with agents. Under the framework of the development agreement of the optimal development threshold, the reasonable development agreement can ensure that the real estate development enterprise can implement the economic and applicable housing project construction goal under the condition of low cost and low income. The validity of the model is proved by numerical analysis.
【学位授予单位】：沈阳建筑大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

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