琶洲PZBG商业综合体项目经济评价与投资风险分析

发布时间：2018-05-15 08:33

本文选题：财务评价 + 评价体系　；参考：《华南理工大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文研究的PZBG项目是一个集酒店、公寓、写字楼及商场的综合体项目。众所周知，商业地产项目投资大、建设期长、市场风险大、施工工艺复杂等特性，决定了其具有较高的投资风险，，因此对项目进行可行性研究及论证以降低项目投资风险是关键。经济评价与投资风险分析是对拟建设项目从财务评价及风险分析两方面进行系统研究，通过对净现值、投资回收期及内部投资收益率等经济指标的计算与分析，对拟建项目的经济效果进行科学全面的评价，为项目投资决策提供重要依据；通过对不确定因素影响因素及影响程度的分析，达到规避与控制项目投资风险的作用，因此，项目经济评价与投资风险分析是项目投资建设前不可或缺的重要研究内容。目前项目经济评价主要集中在工业生产项目与房地产开发项目，对商业综合体项目综合经济评价研究的分析相对较少，大多只是对全销售进行经济评价，缺乏商业地产销售结合持有酒店物业进行分析的经济评价范本。本文就这一问题以琶洲PZBG商业综合体项目为案例研究，对PZBG项目进行科学规划，基于项目实际情况，一是运用PESTEL分析方法对PZBG项目环境与市场进行分析，明确项目建设规划；二是运用财务评价的分析理论与方法，对PZBG项目销售及持有物业的模式进行经济评价，分析项目净现值、投资回收期及内部收益率等评价指标，综合评估PZBG项目盈利能力及偿债能力；三是对PZBG项目作了盈亏平衡分析、敏感性分析及概率分析，分析不确定因素对PZBG项目的影响程度、发生概率及项目对风险的承受能力。确定项目的经济效益与抗风险能力，形成了销售及持有酒店物业经济评价研究的分析范本，是目前单纯以销售为主要研究对象的经济评价分析的功能延伸，增强了研究的综合性与适用性，对后续同类产品的经济评价研究具有理论与实践的借鉴意义。
[Abstract]:The PZBG project studied in this paper is a complex of hotels, apartments, office buildings and shopping malls. As we all know, commercial real estate projects have the characteristics of large investment, long construction period, large market risk, complex construction technology and so on, which determines that commercial real estate projects have high investment risk. So it is the key to study and prove the feasibility of the project in order to reduce the investment risk of the project. Economic evaluation and investment risk analysis is a systematic study on the financial evaluation and risk analysis of the proposed construction project, and the calculation and analysis of economic indicators such as net present value, investment recovery period and internal investment return rate, etc. The economic effect of the proposed project is evaluated scientifically and comprehensively, which provides an important basis for the investment decision of the project. Through the analysis of the influencing factors and the degree of influence of the uncertain factors, the function of avoiding and controlling the investment risk of the project is achieved. Project economic evaluation and investment risk analysis are indispensable research contents before project investment construction. At present, the economic evaluation of projects is mainly focused on industrial production projects and real estate development projects. The analysis of comprehensive economic evaluation of commercial complex projects is relatively few, and most of them are just economic evaluation of total sales. Lack of commercial real estate sales combined with hotel property analysis of the economic evaluation model. This paper takes Pazhou PZBG commercial complex project as a case study, carries on the scientific plan to the PZBG project, based on the project actual situation, first is uses the PESTEL analysis method to carry on the analysis to the PZBG project environment and the market, definite project construction plan; The second is to use the theory and method of financial evaluation to evaluate the model of selling and holding property in PZBG project, analyze the net present value of the project, the payback period of investment and the internal rate of return, etc. The profitability and solvency of the PZBG project are comprehensively evaluated. Thirdly, the break-even analysis, sensitivity analysis and probability analysis of the PZBG project are made to analyze the influence of uncertain factors on the PZBG project, the probability of occurrence and the ability of the project to bear the risk. The determination of the economic benefits and the ability to resist risks of the project has formed an analytical model for the study of economic evaluation of sales and holding hotel properties, and is an extension of the function of economic evaluation and analysis of which sales is the main research object at present. It can be used for reference in theory and practice for the economic evaluation of similar products.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TU71;F299.23

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