M商业广场项目风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-05-16 03:21

本文选题：房地产开发项目 + 风险管理　；参考：《东北石油大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来，房地产行业快速发展，日益成为我国的支柱产业。然而房地产开发能够给投资者带来巨大收益的同时，也具有较高的风险性。由于房地产项目开发，涉及买卖土地并改造、房屋的建设并验收过程以及最后房产商品的租售等一系列过程，所以房地产开发项目投资建设周期较长，另外项目所需资金数额较多，涉及的相关利益主体较多，并且房地产行业容易受国家政策所影响，因此在这一系列活动中，不确定因素始终伴随着房地产开发项目的全过程，也就是说房地产企业不可避免地面临着各种风险。因而对房地产项目的风险管理进行研究有着迫切的必要性和现实意义。本文以M商业广场开发项目作为实例分析，运用系统的观点，对该项目的开发整个过程进行风险管理分析，包括土地的获取阶段到最后的项目租赁阶段。本文在对项目风险管理的现有文献进行总结阐述的基础之上，，充分运用风险识别、风险评估分析到最后的风险应对策略及监控这一系列管理过程，对房地产开发项目的投资决策阶段、开发前期阶段、项目建设阶段、房地产商品的最终租赁阶段四个阶段逐一分析，并综合运用定性及定量分析的方法，对各个阶段的主要风险及次要风险做出准确的评估，并提出合理的解决办法。本论文阐述了风险的定义、分类，项目风险管理的步骤及所用的技术方法等。根据房地产开发项目不同阶段可能的风险源、风险事件以及风险影响的程度范围等，对M商业广场项目的四个阶段的风险因素逐一分析，并将所有的风险因素进行分类。然后运用专家调查这一定性分析方法，以及敏感性分析、盈亏平衡的定量分析方法，对识别出的风险因素进行评估，并得到了重要风险、次要风险。最后根据风险影响程度的不同，结合M项目本身的特点，对不同阶段的风险因素选择合适的应对策略，以减少风险造成的损失程度，完成项目的最终目标。另外，对M商业广场项目进行实时跟踪控制，以便在风险监控的过程中对新出现的风险及时处理，不仅解决了M商业广场项目的风险管理这一实际问题，并对未来的类似项目的风险管理具有一定的借鉴参考意义。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the real estate industry has developed rapidly and become the pillar industry of our country day by day. However, real estate development can bring huge profits to investors, but also has a higher risk. Because the real estate project development involves a series of processes, such as buying and selling land and transforming, building and accepting the house, and renting and selling the final real estate commodity, the investment and construction period of the real estate development project is relatively long. In addition, the amount of funds needed for the project is more, the relevant stakeholders are more involved, and the real estate industry is vulnerable to the influence of national policies. Therefore, in this series of activities, uncertainties always accompany the whole process of the real estate development project. In other words, real estate enterprises inevitably face various risks. Therefore, it is necessary and practical to study the risk management of real estate projects. This paper takes the M Commercial Square Development Project as an example to analyze the risk management of the whole process of the development of the project, including the stage of land acquisition to the final stage of project lease. On the basis of summarizing and expounding the existing documents of project risk management, this paper makes full use of risk identification, risk assessment and analysis to the final risk response strategy and monitoring the series of management processes. This paper analyzes the investment decision stage, the early stage of development, the stage of project construction and the stage of final lease of real estate commodity one by one, and uses the methods of qualitative and quantitative analysis synthetically. Make an accurate assessment of major and secondary risks at all stages and propose reasonable solutions. This paper describes the definition and classification of risk, the steps of project risk management and the technical methods used. According to the possible risk sources, risk events and the extent of risk impact in different stages of the real estate development project, the risk factors of the four stages of M Commercial Square Project are analyzed one by one, and all the risk factors are classified. Then, using the qualitative analysis method of expert investigation, sensitivity analysis and quantitative analysis method of break-even, the identified risk factors are evaluated, and the important risk and secondary risk are obtained. Finally, according to the different degree of risk influence and the characteristics of M project itself, the appropriate coping strategies are selected for the risk factors in different stages in order to reduce the degree of loss caused by risk and to complete the final goal of the project. In addition, the M commercial square project is tracked and controlled in real time in order to deal with the emerging risks in time during the process of risk monitoring, which not only solves the practical problem of risk management of M commercial square project, And the risk management of similar projects in the future has certain reference significance.
【学位授予单位】：东北石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TU712

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