郑州都市圈商品住宅价格波动的溢出效应研究

发布时间：2018-05-19 10:06

本文选题：商品住宅价格 + 价格波动　；参考：《西安建筑科技大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：作为中原城市群发展的核心都市圈，郑州都市圈的商品住宅市场越来越受到专家学者的关注。对郑州都市圈商品住宅市场的监测发现：虽然各自的房地产市场对于宏观经济条件变化的反应从长期来看变动趋势相同，但在时间上却体现出一定的领先/滞后关系，这种领先/滞后关系即是商品住宅价格波动的溢出效应。目前学术界关于郑州都市圈商品住宅价格波动的溢出效应研究尚属空白。本文选取郑州都市圈为研究样本，通过构建VAR模型，在线性误差修正模型的基础上研究样本城市间商品住宅市场价格波动的溢出效应及其影响程度，最后结合广义脉冲响应函数和方差分解综合分析各样本城市的领先/滞后程度及随时间变化的趋势，探讨样本城市间商品住宅价格波动溢出效应的路径。研究结果发现，郑州和洛阳不仅是郑州都市圈经济发展的核心，也是郑州都市圈商品住宅价格波动的领先城市，其自身的波动主要靠自身的累积效应，尤其是郑州，并对其余城市产生明显的溢出效应，并且这种溢出效应有强弱之分，在一定程度上随着时间的延长逐渐减弱。通过本文研究，希望能够对郑州都市圈商品住宅市场价格波动的溢出效应关系作出定量化描述，为相关房地产部门制定政策时提供理论依据，并为投资者理性投资提供参考，，能在一定程度上丰富商品住宅价格理论研究的内容。
[Abstract]:As the core metropolitan area of the development of urban agglomeration in Central Plains, the commodity housing market of Zhengzhou Metropolitan area is paid more and more attention by experts and scholars. The monitoring of the commodity housing market in Zhengzhou Metropolitan area shows that although the response of their real estate markets to the change of macroeconomic conditions is the same in the long run, it shows a certain lead / lag relationship in time. This kind of lead / lag relation is the spillover effect of commodity housing price fluctuation. At present, the academic research on the spillover effect of commodity housing price fluctuation in Zhengzhou Metropolitan area is still blank. Based on the linear error correction model, this paper selects Zhengzhou Metropolitan area as the research sample and constructs the VAR model to study the spillover effect and the influence degree of the price fluctuation in the commodity housing market between the sample cities. Finally, based on the generalized impulse response function and variance decomposition, the paper analyzes the leading / lagging degree of each sample city and the trend with time, and probes into the path of the volatility spillover effect of commodity housing price between sample cities. The results show that Zhengzhou and Luoyang are not only the core of economic development in Zhengzhou metropolitan area, but also the leading city of commodity housing price fluctuation in Zhengzhou metropolitan area. The spillover effect on other cities is obvious, and the spillover effect is weak or strong, which weakens to some extent with the prolongation of time. Through the research of this paper, I hope to be able to quantitatively describe the spillover effect of commodity housing market price fluctuation in Zhengzhou Metropolitan area, provide the theoretical basis for the relevant real estate sector to formulate policies, and provide a reference for investors' rational investment. To some extent, it can enrich the content of commodity housing price theory research.
【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

【参考文献】