哈尔滨市商品住宅市场需求量预测分析

发布时间：2018-05-21 21:15

本文选题：住宅市场需求量 + 影响因素　；参考：《东北林业大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国房地产市场的发展,住宅产业进入了一个市场化和商品化的时期。目前,我国住宅市场己初具规模,无论对整个房地产产业,还是对关联产业、人居环境和社会经济的影响都非常明显。所以,建立科学的预测模型对住宅市场需求量进行预测,既有利于对住宅市场发展进行短期控制和平衡,也对整个住宅产业的长期发展规划起到重要作用。本文研究的主要目的是通过运用灰关联分析和因子分析对影响哈尔滨市住宅需求量的因素做研究,利用GM(1,1)模型以及BP神经网络预测模型,对哈尔滨市住宅市场的发展进行分析和预测,将结果进行对比分析,从而丰富和发展上述理论和方法的应用体系,为相关政府和企业做出科学的决策提供依据。住宅需求的变化是住宅市场发展的主导因素,是住宅供应变动的牵动力,是住宅供应的出发点和归宿。只有对住宅市场的需求做出正确的分析和准确的判断,掌握其发展规律和趋势,才能为政府部门制定相应的宏观调控政策提供借鉴,为房地产企业未来的发展提供帮助。因此,本文将哈尔滨市的住宅市场需求量作为研究对象,首先研究关于住宅市场、住宅市场需求的概念和理论,并介绍哈尔滨市住宅市场的发展现状；其次对哈尔滨市住宅市场需求的影响因素进行灰关联定量分析和因子分析,找出可以统计和量化的影响因素,并根据与住宅需求关联程度大小进行排序,指出影响哈尔滨市住宅市场需求变化的最主要因素,最后通过灰色GM(1,1)模型和BP神经网络预测模型对哈尔滨市未来五年的住宅市场需求量进行预测,将两种方法的预测结果进行对比分析,最终得出结论,为哈尔滨市商品住宅市场需求量研究提供帮助。
[Abstract]:With the development of China's real estate market, the housing industry has entered a period of marketization and commercialization. At present, the housing market of our country has begun to take shape, whether to the whole real estate industry, or to the related industry, the influence of human settlement environment and social economy is very obvious. Therefore, the establishment of a scientific forecasting model to forecast the demand of the housing market is not only conducive to the short-term control and balance of the development of the housing market, but also plays an important role in the long-term development planning of the entire housing industry. The main purpose of this paper is to use grey correlation analysis and factor analysis to study the factors that affect the housing demand in Harbin. The development of housing market in Harbin is analyzed and forecasted, and the results are compared and analyzed, so as to enrich and develop the application system of the above theories and methods, and provide the basis for the relevant governments and enterprises to make scientific decisions. The change of housing demand is the leading factor in the development of housing market, the driving force of the change of housing supply, and the starting point and destination of housing supply. Only by making correct analysis and accurate judgment on the demand of housing market and mastering its development law and trend can we provide reference for government departments to formulate corresponding macro-control policies and provide help for the future development of real estate enterprises. Therefore, this paper takes the housing market demand of Harbin as the research object. Firstly, it studies the concept and theory of housing market and housing market demand, and introduces the present situation of housing market in Harbin. Secondly, the influencing factors of housing market demand in Harbin are analyzed quantitatively by grey correlation and factor analysis, and the influencing factors that can be counted and quantified are found out, and the order is made according to the degree of correlation with housing demand. This paper points out the main factors that influence the change of housing market demand in Harbin, and finally forecasts the demand of housing market in Harbin in the next five years by means of grey GM1 / 1) model and BP neural network forecasting model. The results of the two methods are compared and analyzed, and the conclusion is drawn, which can be helpful to the study of the demand of the commercial housing market in Harbin.
【学位授予单位】：东北林业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F224

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