中国新建普通商品房价格指数编制方法研究

发布时间：2018-05-22 12:03

本文选题：房价指数 + 特征价格法　；参考：《武汉金融》2017年06期

【摘要】：我国新建商品房价格指数的准确与否关乎房地产调控政策的效果检验、风险与泡沫程度的测量以及金融经济政策的制定,但目前我国的房价指数存在理论基础缺乏、发布的指数与房地产市场不相吻合等问题。本文首先深入分析了我国新建商品房价格指数编制方法存在的主要问题,提出我国新建商品房价格指数编制方法应满足的3个要求,其次建立房价指数的半线性混合效应模型,并基于同一上下楼集合的房屋匹配,重点构建了同质可比的房价指数编制模型与迭代计算方法。本文所建立的模型回避了特征价格法需要采集众多特征变量数据的问题,所给计算方法可剔除原始价格异常数据所产生的匹配对误差,并可剔除匹配过程所产生的新误差。最终基于襄阳市的商业银行贷款数据进行实际计算和结果分析。本文的模型具有理论上的科学性、采样上的方便性和计算上的简单性,达到了第3代房价指数的要求。
[Abstract]:The accuracy of the price index of newly built commercial housing in our country is related to the effect test of real estate regulation and control policy, the measurement of risk and bubble degree, and the formulation of financial and economic policy. But at present, there is a lack of theoretical basis for housing price index in our country. The published index and the real estate market does not coincide with such issues. This paper first analyzes the main problems in the method of compiling the price index of newly built commercial housing in China, and puts forward three requirements which should be satisfied by the method of compiling the price index of newly built commercial housing in our country. Secondly, the semi-linear mixed effect model of the price index of the house price is established. Based on the matching of the upper and lower buildings, a homogenous and comparable housing price index compilation model and iterative calculation method are constructed. The model established in this paper avoids the problem that the characteristic price method needs to collect a large number of characteristic variable data. The proposed method can eliminate the matching error caused by the original abnormal price data and the new error caused by the matching process. Finally, based on Xiangyang commercial bank loan data, the actual calculation and result analysis. The model in this paper is scientific in theory, convenient in sampling and simple in calculation, which meets the requirements of the third generation house price index.
【作者单位】：武汉理工大学;
【分类号】：F299.23

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