武汉市商品住宅需求影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-05-26 02:54

本文选题：住宅需求 + 影响因素　；参考：《华中师范大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：住宅产业作为房地产业的一个重要组成部分,与国民的生活水平息息相关。居住需求是人类的基本需求之一,住宅商品是人类的生活必需品之一。住宅商品因为其特殊性,所以具备了经济和社会的双重属性。住宅产业的发展程度与住宅价格的高低水平,直接影响着国民生活水平的高低和国民生活质量的好坏。随着社会经济的发展和人民收入水平的提高以及城镇化建设的推行,人们对于住宅的需求水平逐步增长,对于住宅品质的要求也逐步提高。住宅市场的发展在社会经济发展过程中的重要性愈发凸显,对住宅需求问题的妥善解决不仅有利于国民经济的可持续发展而且有利于人民的安居乐业和社会的长治久安。一般来讲,住宅需求的影响因素大体可分为经济性和非经济性两大方面。本文从经济性和非经济性两方面对武汉市商品住宅需求的影响因素进行了定性分析,在这些影响因素中选取了部分可量化的因素,运用武汉市1999年至2013年的统计数据,以商品住宅销售面积为母序列,通过对变量的灰色斜率关联度的计算,分析了这些因素对武汉市商品住宅需求的影响程度。然后以新古典住宅主义理论为基础,以住宅商品同质属性为假设前提,提出了住宅需求模型。以商品住宅销售面积为因变量,各可量化的影响因素为自变量,利用最小二乘法,对假设模型进行检验,最后证明城镇居民人均可支配收入、商品住宅销售均价和五年期贷款利率这三个影响因素与武汉市商品住宅销售量显著相关。说明了武汉市商品住宅需求量与城镇居民人均可支配收入呈正相关,与商品住宅销售均价以及五年期贷款利率呈负相关。对武汉市商品住宅需求影响因素进行分析和计算,可以找出对武汉市商品住宅需求最相关的影响因素,有利于把握武汉市商品住宅需求的特点及发展趋势,有利于对武汉市商品住宅需求做出准确判断和预测,对消费者的购房行为、房地产企业的投资发展以及政府宏观调控政策的制定都有一定的指导意义。对武汉市商品住宅需求函数的研究,有利于掌握各影响因素对住宅需求的影响程度及城市住宅需求对各主要影响因素变动的敏感度,从而有利于根据城市住宅市场的发展情况对各影响因素实施不同的调整方向和调整力度。
[Abstract]:As an important part of real estate industry, housing industry is closely related to the standard of living of the people. Housing demand is one of the basic needs of human beings, residential goods is one of the necessities of human life. Because of its particularity, residential goods have the dual attributes of economy and society. The development degree of housing industry and the level of housing price directly affect the level of national living standard and the quality of national life. With the development of social economy and the improvement of people's income level and the implementation of urbanization, people's demand for housing has gradually increased, and the demand for housing quality has also been gradually raised. The development of housing market is becoming more and more important in the process of social and economic development. The proper solution of housing demand is not only conducive to the sustainable development of the national economy, but also conducive to the people's peace and contentment and the long-term stability of the society. Generally speaking, the influencing factors of housing demand can be divided into economic and non-economic aspects. This paper makes a qualitative analysis on the influencing factors of commercial housing demand in Wuhan from the aspects of economy and non-economy, selects some quantifiable factors among these factors, and applies the statistical data of Wuhan from 1999 to 2013. Based on the analysis of the grey slope correlation degree of the variables, the influence of these factors on the demand for commercial housing in Wuhan is analyzed. Then, based on the neoclassical housing theory and the assumption of the homogeneity of housing commodities, the housing demand model is put forward. Taking commercial housing sales area as dependent variable and quantifiable influencing factors as independent variables, using the least square method, the hypothesis model is tested, and the per capita disposable income of urban residents is proved. The average selling price and five-year loan interest rate of commercial housing are significantly related to the sales volume of commercial housing in Wuhan. It is shown that the demand for commercial housing in Wuhan is positively correlated with the per capita disposable income of urban residents, negatively correlated with the average selling price of commercial housing and the five-year loan interest rate. Based on the analysis and calculation of the influencing factors of the commercial housing demand in Wuhan, the most relevant factors can be found out, which is helpful to grasp the characteristics and development trend of the commercial housing demand in Wuhan. It is helpful to make accurate judgment and forecast on the demand for commercial housing in Wuhan, and has certain guiding significance to the behavior of consumers, the investment and development of real estate enterprises and the formulation of government macro-control policies. The research on the demand function of commercial housing in Wuhan is helpful to grasp the influence degree of various influencing factors on housing demand and the sensitivity of urban housing demand to the change of main influencing factors. Therefore, it is advantageous to carry out different adjustment direction and intensity according to the development of urban housing market.
【学位授予单位】：华中师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

【参考文献】