基于自由现金流量的房地产企业风险防范探讨

发布时间：2018-05-28 08:38

本文选题：房地产企业 + 自由现金流量　；参考：《江西财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文基于自由现金流量理论，结合房地产企业营运特点，对在自由现金流量计算过程中有重要影响的财务报表项目进行分析，进而识别房地产企业面临的主要风险。然后针对这些风险，本文结合自由现金流量理论在房地产企业中的应用，制订防范风险的措施以提高房地产企业防范风险的能力。在企业日常经营活动的整个过程中风险无处不在，但企业的资源非常有限。因此如果能识别影响日常经营活动的主要风险，企业就能针对识别出来的风险采取防范措施，从而提高其防范风险的能力。对于房地产企业来说，有效的风险防范可以实现企业价值最大化；对于股东来说，有效的风险防范有助于实现股东财富最大化。影响企业价值的风险是他们最关注的风险，影响企业价值的主要风险包括经营活动产生的风险以及财务活动产生的风险。基于这个想法，本文对自由现金流量用于识别与防范房地产企业风险的适用性与优越性进行验证。相比其他风险识别与防范方法，自由现金流量更关注企业的长远利益，，更多地考虑利益相关者的利益，具有传统财务指标不具备的优势。由于房地产企业外部环境的不确定性和复杂性，房地产企业的经营风险和财务风险都较高。又由于房地产企业特殊的营运特点以及受国家宏观政策的影响，房地产企业面临的外部风险较大。房地产企业面临的各种外部风险在房地产企业经营管理的过程中会以内部风险的形式反映出来，同时这些内部风险可以从企业财务报表的表现中识别出来。根据这个分析思路，本文从分析房地产企业的财务报表入手，先得出影响企业自由现金流量的关键财务报表项目，从而进一步识别出房地产企业的关键外部影响因素，最后借助上述因素分析影响房地产企业的主要风险。最后，针对上述识别出来的主要风险，本文提出防范房地产企业风险的总体策略和具体措施。房地产企业风险防范的总体策略包括：持有自由现金流量；利用自由现金流量进行投资；将自由现金流量用于偿还债务；将自由现金流量作为股利分配给股东。房地产企业风险防范的具体措施分为经营风险防范措施和财务风险防范措施。基于自由现金流量的房地产企业经营风险防范措施包括：销售量和销售价格波动风险防范；基于自由现金流量的税务风险防范；合理增加土地储备，保证自由现金流量；增加经营现金持有量。基于自由现金流量的房地产企业财务风险防范措施包括：构建以自由现金流量为核心的预算管理体系；通过自由现金流量强化现金流入；运用自由现金流量优化筹资规划的结构和期限安排；根据自由现金流量制订股利政策。
[Abstract]:Based on the theory of free cash flow and the operating characteristics of real estate enterprises , this paper analyzes the financial statements items which have important influence on the calculation of free cash flow , and then identifies the main risks faced by real estate enterprises .

The risk is ubiquitous throughout the entire process of business day - to - day operations , but the resources of the enterprise are very limited . Therefore , enterprises can take precautions against identified risks if they can identify the main risks that affect the daily operational activities , thereby enhancing their ability to guard against risks .

For real estate enterprises , effective risk prevention can maximize enterprise value ;
For shareholders , effective risk prevention helps to maximize shareholder wealth . The risk of influencing the value of enterprises is their most concern , and the main risks that affect the value of enterprises include the risks arising from the operation activities and the risks arising from financial activities . Based on this idea , this paper proves the applicability and superiority of free cash flows in identifying and preventing the risks of real estate enterprises . Compared with other risk identification and prevention methods , free cash flows pay more attention to the long - term interests of the enterprises and take into account the interests of the stakeholders , and have the advantages that the traditional financial indicators do not have .

Due to the uncertainty and complexity of the external environment of real estate enterprises , the management risks and financial risks of real estate enterprises are higher . In addition , the external risks faced by real estate enterprises are relatively large due to the special operation characteristics of real estate enterprises and the influence of the macro - policies of the country . The external risks faced by real estate enterprises can be recognized in the form of internal risk in the management of real estate enterprises .

Finally , aiming at the main risks identified above , this paper puts forward the overall strategy and concrete measures to prevent the risk of real estate enterprises . The overall strategy of risk prevention in real estate enterprises includes : holding free cash flows ;
Investment by using free cash flows ;
The use of free cash flows for debt servicing ;
The free cash flows are distributed to shareholders as dividends . The specific measures of risk prevention in real estate enterprises are divided into operational risk prevention measures and financial risk prevention measures . The risk prevention measures for real estate enterprises based on free cash flow include : sales volume and risk prevention of sales price volatility ;
Tax risk prevention based on free cash flow ;
Reasonable increase of land reserve and guarantee free cash flow ;
The financial risk prevention measures of real estate enterprises based on free cash flow include : building a budget management system with free cash flow as the core ;
Strengthening cash inflow through free cash flows ;
To optimize the structure and duration arrangement of fund - raising planning by using free cash flow ;
The dividend policy is formulated according to free cash flow .
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275.1;F299.233.4

【参考文献】