货币供给机制变化与经济稳定化政策的选择

发布时间：2018-05-29 22:11

本文选题：货币供给 + 央行资产变化　；参考：《经济学动态》2017年07期

【摘要】：我国改革开放实践证明,货币供给与经济增长阶段性变化有着很强的同步性特征。在经济赶超阶段,货币供给以"信贷中介"激励资本形成,促进经济增长,货币供给结构反映出我国外向型经济的高速发展,即外汇占款成为央行资产最主要部分,决定央行货币释放。新世纪后房地产推动了资产抵押的货币需求。进入新常态后,外汇占款不断下降,货币供给靠国内短期流动性资产创设对冲长期外汇资产下降。以"通道"推动的金融创新,提高了货币乘数和信用杠杆,但没有优化资源配置,反而加大了市场波动。由此可见,随着我国经济已经进入到新发展阶段,货币供给目标要从赶超期的"又快又好"转向新常态下的"稳中求进",根本上要逐步建立以公债为基础的央行资产,形成新常态下的货币、财政和统一监管的宏观稳定化政策和管理框架,推动经济走向成熟。
[Abstract]:The practice of reform and opening to the outside world has proved that the changes of money supply and economic growth have strong synchronism. In the stage of economic catch-up and overtaking, the money supply stimulates capital formation and promotes economic growth with "credit intermediary". The money supply structure reflects the rapid development of China's export-oriented economy, that is, foreign exchange accounts for the most important part of the central bank's assets. Determine the release of central bank money. After the new century, real estate has promoted the demand for money of asset mortgage. After entering the new normal, foreign exchange accounts for a steady decline, and the money supply relies on domestic short-term liquidity assets to create a hedge against the decline of long-term foreign exchange assets. The financial innovation promoted by "channel" has raised the monetary multiplier and credit leverage, but instead of optimizing the allocation of resources, it has increased the market volatility. It can be seen from this that as China's economy has entered a new stage of development, the money supply target should change from "fast and good" in the period of catch-up and overtaking to "seeking progress in a steady way" under the new normal, and basically it is necessary to gradually establish the central bank assets based on public debt. The macro-stabilization policy and management framework of monetary, fiscal and unified supervision are formed under the new normal to promote the economy to mature.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院经济研究所;
【分类号】：F124;F822.2

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