赣州市中心城区商品住宅需求预测分析

发布时间：2018-06-06 18:24

本文选题：商品住宅 + 需求分析　；参考：《江西理工大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：房地产的发展深远的影响着社会的其他各行各业，强劲的带动力、高关联度的特点使得其在国民经济发展中占有了非常重要的地位。当前良好的经济环境下，国民经济稳步发展，不足之处在于房地产领域出现了一系列矛盾，如土地资源浪费严重、房价收入比居高不下、房价泡沫化加剧、房屋空置现象严重等。赣州市中心城区商品住宅消费市场在迅速发展的同时,也凸显出许多问题,比如,商品住宅价格增速过快，商品住宅供应结构不合理等现象，供给和需求因素是影响赣州市中心城区住宅消费市场的两大基本因素,其中需求因素在当前赣州市住宅市场中起着重要作用，因此,如何研究和调控住宅需求,对建设健康完善的赣州市中心城区住宅市场有着积极意义。本文对国内外住宅市场需求研究进行综述,在对赣州市中心城区商品住宅市场发展历程、现状、问题进行分析的基础上,利用灰色关联度分析法对赣州市中心城区商品住宅市场需求因素进行定性及定量分析,筛选出中心城区GDP值、人均可支配收入、人均居住面积、非农业人口四个与商品住宅销售面积关联度较高的四个指标，再通过构建GM（1,1）模型对这四个主要影响因素指标进行定量预测,结合GM（1，N）模型得出未来五年赣州市中心城区商品住宅需求量，，最后提出基于调控住宅市场需求，促进赣州市中心城区商品住宅市场稳定健康发展的对策。
[Abstract]:The development of real estate has a profound influence on all walks of life in the society. It has a very important position in the development of national economy because of its strong driving force and high correlation degree. In the current good economic environment, the national economy has developed steadily, and the shortcomings lie in a series of contradictions in the real estate field, such as the serious waste of land resources, the high ratio of house prices to income, and the intensification of the bubble of house prices. With the rapid development of the commodity housing consumption market in the downtown area of Ganzhou, many problems have also been highlighted, such as the rapid growth of commodity housing prices and the unreasonable supply structure of commodity housing. Supply and demand are the two basic factors that affect the residential consumption market in the central district of Ganzhou, among which demand factors play an important role in the current housing market of Ganzhou. Therefore, how to study and regulate the housing demand, For the construction of a healthy and sound Ganzhou city housing market has a positive significance. In this paper, the domestic and foreign residential market demand research is summarized, on the basis of the analysis of the development process, current situation and problems of the commercial housing market in the central urban area of Ganzhou City, By using the grey correlation degree analysis method, the demand factors of the commercial housing market in the central district of Ganzhou city are qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed, and the GDP value, the per capita disposable income, the living area per capita of the central urban area are screened out. There are four indexes with high correlation degree between the non-agricultural population and the commercial housing sales area, and then the quantitative prediction of the four main influencing factors is carried out through the construction of the GMM1 / 1) model. According to the GMGM1N) model, the demand for commercial housing in the central urban area of Ganzhou City in the next five years is obtained. Finally, the countermeasures to promote the stable and healthy development of the commercial housing market in the central district of Ganzhou City are put forward based on the regulation of the housing market demand.
【学位授予单位】：江西理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

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