天津市房地产市场运行状况评价

发布时间：2018-06-07 18:04

本文选题：房地产市场 + 健康状况评价　；参考：《天津师范大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：目前房地产业已成为我国国民经济发展的支柱性产业,关系着国家经济的发展和社会的稳定。近年来,针对我国房地产市场出现的房价过快增长等问题,为了防止房地产市场出现泡沫,自2010年以来政府连续出台了一系列的宏观调控措施,通过调节信贷、利率和供给等方式规避风险,以保障我国房地产市场健康发展。但是由于我国各地区自身自然环境状况、地理区位以及经济发展水平的差异导致各城市的房地产市场的运行状况参差不齐,在相同的宏观调控政策下各区域房地产市场的反应大有不同。因此,目前国内外对于房地产市场健康的定义很难形成统一的标准。本文在对国内外有关房地产市场发展研究及房地产指标体系相关理论发展现状的广泛阅读和深入的研究的基础上,对房地产市场健康运行进行界定,并且总结分析出房地产市场健康状况评价的理论与方法,以及房地产市场健康状况评价指标体系的构建过程。在构建房地产市场健康评价指标体系的基础上,结合天津市房地产市场自身发展特点,选取了天津市2000年至2011年房地产市场发展的指标统计数据,运用理论分析与实证研究相结合的方法,建立天津市房地产健康状况评价指标体系,从价格、规模、供求、结构四个方面对天津市房地产市场发展状况进行评价。此外,通过与我国房地产市场整体发展状况进行对比,对评价结果进行进一步的验证。本文采用聚类分析法和定性分析法在房地产健康状况评价指标体系的设置过程中对各个指标进行分类；采用熵权法在房地产健康状况评价指标权重的确定阶段对各个指标所占权重进行分析；采用系统化方法对健康状况评价评价指标的临界值进行划分；最后通过单项指标健康状况分析和综合累计分值分析两个层面进行天津市房地产市场发展健康状况评价。通过评价本文得出的结论是天津市房地产市场的运行状况总体上是健康稳定的。单项指标评价中,各指标在2000-2011年间除了个别年限受国家宏观经济和政府调控的影响有偏离健康区间的趋势外,基本处于健康状态；综合评价中,除2006和2007年处于微热状态外,其余年份均为健康状态。最后,根据评价结果得出的结论,提出相应的对策建议,为促进天津市房地产市场持续健康发展提供支持。
[Abstract]:At present, the real estate industry has become the pillar industry of the national economy development, which is related to the development of the national economy and the stability of the society. In recent years, in order to prevent the bubble in the real estate market, the government has continuously introduced a series of macro-control measures since 2010, through the regulation of credit. Interest rate and supply and other ways to avoid risk, in order to ensure the healthy development of our real estate market. However, due to the differences in the natural environment, geographical location and economic development level of different regions in China, the operation status of real estate market in different cities is not uniform. Under the same macro-control policy, the response of the real estate market in different regions is very different. therefore At present, the definition of real estate market health at home and abroad is difficult to form a unified standard. This paper defines the healthy operation of the real estate market, and summarizes and analyzes the theory and method of evaluating the health status of the real estate market, as well as the construction process of the evaluation index system of the real estate market health status. On the basis of constructing the index system of real estate market health evaluation and combining the development characteristics of Tianjin real estate market, this paper selects the index statistical data of Tianjin real estate market development from 2000 to 2011. Using the method of theoretical analysis and empirical research, this paper establishes the evaluation index system of Tianjin real estate health condition, and evaluates the development of Tianjin real estate market from four aspects: price, scale, supply and demand, and structure. In addition, by comparing with the overall development of China's real estate market, In this paper, cluster analysis and qualitative analysis are used to classify each index in the process of setting up the evaluation index system of real estate health status. Entropy weight method is used to analyze the weight of each index in the stage of determining the weight of real estate health evaluation index, and the critical value of health condition evaluation index is divided by systematic method. Finally, the health status of Tianjin real estate market is evaluated from two aspects: health status analysis of single index and comprehensive cumulative score analysis. The conclusion of this paper is the running state of Tianjin real estate market. The situation is generally healthy and stable. In the evaluation of individual indicators, except for the trend of deviating from the health range of individual years affected by the national macroeconomic and government regulation and control in the period 2000-2011, the indicators were basically in a healthy state. In the comprehensive evaluation, except for 2006 and 2007, the indicators were in a state of slight heat. The rest of the year is healthy. Finally, according to the conclusions of the evaluation, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to support the sustainable and healthy development of the real estate market in Tianjin.
【学位授予单位】：天津师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

【参考文献】