人民币升值对宏观经济的影响以及政策分析

发布时间：2018-06-10 08:56

本文选题：人民币升值 + 原因　；参考：《东北财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：如今伴随我国经济的快速发展,经济结构和增长速度也不在调整和优化,其中人民币汇率改革成为我国经济发展的一个重要的关注焦点。在2005年,我国央行宣布建立以市场供求为基础的人民币汇率机制,所形成的机制要求能够具有管理浮动汇率的制度,具有独立性,不依赖于美元,并具有一定弹性。影响我国人民币升值的因素有很多,本文从名义汇率与实际汇率的差别,我国经济中出现的巨大的贸易顺差,我国和美国的通货膨胀率之间的差异,美元的疲软以及人民币升值预期的加强以及国际热钱的大量涌入这四个方面来解析人民币升值的原因。自从实行人民币汇率改革之后,我国的经济出现了很多现象,既有正面的也有负面的,包括对我国外贸易的大额顺差,外汇储备增加,以及某些行业的产业结构落后,管理效率差,产品的技术含量和经济附加值都很低和资源过多的消耗和浪费增加这些现象。总的来看人民币的升值是一把双刃剑,我们既要利用正面效应带给我们的契机,包括对外汇适当的投资,增加资本的投入等。也要充分利用负面效应带给我们的进一步提升和改善的机遇,包括优化产业结构,对产品的升级改造,加快行业转型的步伐等内容。同时,我们还要善于借鉴日本和的过着两个国家应对货币升值的经验和教训,日本和德国对于货币升值的问题与目前我国的货币升值问题具有非常大的相似性,尽管当时两国同样面临国内货币的升值压力,然而两国对于同一局面采取了不同的汇率政策,最终产生了截然相反的改革效果。所以,这两国对于货币升值的汇率改革措施对于我国目前的状况具有非常好的研究价值,对于我国的人民币升值所采取的措施具有非常好的借鉴价值和预警价值。第一,汇率升值是经济发展的大势很难避免。任何国家处在经济增长的这一过程,必须看清过热的经济对于汇率升值的压力影响,对于国家的汇率要根据升值趋势适当的进行调整。而汇率的调正也是一个渐进的过程,必须与经济基本面的调整相适应。因为这样的调整,更有利本国物价的稳定和经济的稳步发展,有利于国内经济资源在贸易品与非贸易品国家部门之间进行重新配置。第二,在动荡不稳定的汇率水平面前,这个时候国家就更加必须保持本国货币政策的自主和独立。第三,引导资金正确流向,关注资产价格波动。经济的过快发展,货币升值势必导致本国过剩的资本,而这些资本必须进行正确的引导,否则会引发资本流入股市、房地产等虚拟经济,导致泡沫经济。随着世界经济体之间越来越亲密,一体化的趋势越来越明显,而汇率对于全球资源的分配起着重要的作用。我国作为世界经济的重要组成部分,我国的汇率改革对于全球和亚洲的的各国都具有深远影响。针对对国内外要求人民币升值的呼声,我国政府在保持汇率平稳的同时,还需要通过积极的措施来应对人民币升值所带来的影响,缓解因为外汇储备不断增加带来的压力。我们首先要对人民币的升值采取小幅渐进的模式,避免大幅度升值带来的冲击；其次要优化产业结构和对出口企业的保护,比如加大出口退税制度,给更多的企业留出调整和升级的时间来应对产业结构的转型；再者要加快我国外汇市场的建设速度,完善外汇市场的机制,丰富外汇的品种,对国际资本的流入加大监管力度,鼓励企业对外投资并进行宏观的经济调控,着眼于宏观经济的角度,以此作为出发点,采取措施来应对人民币升值带来的不利影响。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy, the economic structure and growth rate are not adjusted and optimized. The RMB exchange rate reform has become an important focus of attention in the economic development of our country. In 2005, the Central Bank of China announced the establishment of a RMB exchange rate mechanism based on market supply and demand, and the mechanism required to be able to have the management of the RMB exchange rate. The system of floating exchange rate is independent, independent of US dollars and has a certain flexibility. There are many factors affecting the appreciation of RMB in our country. The difference between nominal exchange rate and real exchange rate, the huge trade surplus in our economy, the difference of inflation rate between China and the United States, the weakness of the dollar and the RMB After the reform of the RMB exchange rate, there have been many phenomena in China's economy, both positive and negative, including the large amount of trade in foreign countries, the increase of foreign exchange reserves, and the industry of some industries. The backward structure, poor management efficiency, low technical content and economic added value and excessive consumption and waste of resources increase these phenomena. In general, the appreciation of the RMB is a double-edged sword. We should take advantage of the opportunity of the positive effect, including the appropriate investment in foreign exchange, the increase of capital investment and so on. We should use the negative effects to improve and improve our opportunities, including optimizing the industrial structure, upgrading the products, and speeding up the pace of the industry transformation. At the same time, we should also be good at learning from the experience and lessons of the two countries in Japan to respond to the currency appreciation and the problems of currency appreciation in Japan and Germany. At the present time, China's currency appreciation is very similar. Although the two countries are facing the same pressure of appreciation of domestic currency at that time, the two countries adopted different exchange rate policies on the same situation, which eventually resulted in the opposite reform effect. Therefore, the exchange rate reform measures for the currency appreciation of the two countries are present to our country. The situation has very good research value. The measures taken for the appreciation of RMB in China have very good reference value and early warning value. First, the appreciation of the exchange rate is difficult to avoid in the development of economy. The exchange rate in the country should be adjusted appropriately according to the trend of appreciation. The adjustment of the exchange rate is also a gradual process, which must be adapted to the adjustment of the economic fundamentals, because this adjustment makes the price stability of the country more stable and the steady development of the economy, and is beneficial to the domestic economic resources between the trade goods and the non trade goods state departments. Second, in the face of the unstable exchange rate, the country must be more independent and independent of its monetary policy at this time. Third, guide the correct flow of capital, pay attention to the fluctuation of asset prices. The rapid development of the economy, the currency appreciation will lead to the surplus capital of the country, and the capital must be made positive. True guidance, otherwise, it will lead to capital inflow into the stock market, real estate and other virtual economies, leading to the bubble economy. With the growing intimacy between the world economy, the trend of integration is becoming more and more obvious, and the exchange rate plays an important role in the distribution of global resources. As an important part of the world economy, China's exchange rate reform is an important part of our country. All countries in the world and Asia have far-reaching impact. In view of the call for the appreciation of RMB at home and abroad, our government needs to take positive measures to cope with the impact of RMB appreciation while keeping the exchange rate stable, so as to alleviate the pressure on the increase of foreign exchange reserves. It takes a small and gradual model to avoid the impact of a large appreciation. Secondly, we should optimize the industrial structure and protect the export enterprises, such as increasing the export tax rebate system, leaving more enterprises to adjust and upgrading the time to cope with the transformation of the industrial structure; moreover, the speed of building the foreign exchange market in China should be accelerated and the foreign exchange should be perfected. The mechanism of the market is to enrich the variety of foreign exchange, strengthen the supervision of the inflow of international capital, encourage enterprises to invest in the foreign countries and carry out macroeconomic regulation and control, with a view to the macroeconomic perspective, and take measures to cope with the adverse effects of the appreciation of the RMB.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6;F124

【参考文献】