卓越世纪中心建设项目施工风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-06-11 16:20

本文选题：项目风险管理 + 德尔菲法　；参考：《中国海洋大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：自改革开放以来,我国房地产业快速发展,并逐步从一个新兴的产业,逐渐成为国民经济发展的重要支柱产业,为国民经济的持续和快速发展提供了强大地推动力。但由于房价过高凸显出的矛盾,国家和地方政府开始对房地产政策进行不断的调整,使得目前的整个房地产业都处在一个巨大的调整时期,房地产企业的发展过程中面临着前所未有的挑战。并且因为我国房地产行业本身具有开发周期长、投资规模大、建设不规范、验收不严格、开发过程环节多,涉及面广等特点,使它成为一种既是需要巨大的初始投资以及风险程度很高的行业,又是回报特别显著的行业,这就决定了房地产开发过程中会面临很多的不确定性,因此必须对房地产项目进行风险分析和经济评价,通过科学而有效风险管理过程,识别房地产行业面临风险,分析已识别风险发生几率和危害程度,进而制定有效的措施对风险进行有力的控制和防范,最终达到有效的降低风险发生可能给房地产项目带来损失目的,提高项目竞争能力和盈利能力。本文尝试将风险管理的相关理论应用到具体和实际的房地产开发项目中,通过详细和全面的总结项目风险管理理论,选择合适的项目管理评价方法,严格按照项目风险管理的流程,结合卓越世纪中心建设项目的具体情况,对其进行具体、全面的风险管理分析和研究,旨在使卓越世纪中心项目获得成功。第一部分主要介绍了项目风险管理理论的相关背景和国内外研究的现状等基本内容,介绍文章主要目的和框架；第二部分主要介绍项目风险管理的理论基础,并对风险管理方法进行详细介绍,包括项目风险管理的具体过程以及项目风险管理过程中运用到的各种评价方法,如德尔菲法、层次分析法等；第三部分介绍了卓越世纪中心项目的基本概况,包括项目的地理位置,项目周边的经济环境、项目的实际规划和建设现状等情况作简要概述；第四部分主要介绍了项目风险识别的依据,并运用德尔菲法对该项目风险进行识别,然后对识别出的项目风险进行评估,评估各种风险发生的概率以及发生后可能造成损失的程度；第五部分重点对识别出来的项目质量风险、进度风险、经济风险和技术风险运用层次分析法,建立指标体系、构造判断矩阵进行风险评价,得出每个具体风险事件在整个风险中的权重,为控制风险提供可靠、真实的依据。第六部分主要是在前文风险识别和评价的基础上有针对性的提出房地产控制风险发生的对策建议和应对措施,为项目风险管理铺垫基石。第七部分是结论与展望.本文研究结果不仅对开发商的投资决策具有重要意义,也期望对今后类似的房地产开发项目风险管理研究及实践提供借鉴,再结合房地产自身特点和不确定性强的基础上,加强风险防范意识,提高卓越世纪中心项目的抗风险能力,减少风险造成的损失,提高项目盈利能力和竞争能力,确保项目的成功。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's real estate industry has developed rapidly and gradually becomes an important pillar industry in the development of national economy gradually from a new industry, which provides a strong impetus for the sustained and rapid development of the national economy. However, the state and local governments have begun to carry out the real estate policy because of the contradiction between the high price of the house and the high prices. The continuous adjustment makes the whole real estate industry in a period of great adjustment, and the real estate enterprises are facing unprecedented challenges in the process of development. And because our real estate industry itself has a long development cycle, large scale of investment, non standard construction, unstrict acceptance, many development processes, and a wide range of aspects, and so on. It is a kind of industry which needs huge initial investment and high risk, and it is a very significant industry in return. This determines that the real estate development process will face many uncertainties. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out risk analysis and economic evaluation on real estate projects, through scientific and effective risk management process, Identify the real estate industry to face risks, analyze the risk of identifying risk and the degree of harm, and then formulate effective measures to control and prevent the risk effectively, and finally achieve effective reduction of risk may bring loss to the real estate project, improve the competitive ability and profitability of the project. This paper attempts to risk management. The related theory is applied to concrete and practical real estate development projects. Through a detailed and comprehensive summary of the project risk management theory, the appropriate project management evaluation method is selected, the project risk management process is strictly according to the project, and the specific and comprehensive risk management of the project is carried out in the light of the specific situation of the central construction project in the center of the century. The first part mainly introduces the background of the theory of project risk management and the basic content of the present research at home and abroad, and introduces the main purpose and framework of the article. The second part mainly introduces the theoretical basis of the project risk management, and detailed the risk management methods in detail. This paper introduces the specific process of project risk management and various evaluation methods used in the process of project risk management, such as Delphi method and analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The third part introduces the basic situation of the central project of the outstanding century, including the geographical location of the project, the economic environment on the side of the project, the actual planning and construction of the project. The fourth part mainly introduces the basis of the project risk identification, and uses Delphy Fa to identify the risk of the project, then evaluates the identified project risk, evaluates the probability of the occurrence of various risks and the extent of the possible loss after the occurrence; the fifth part focuses on the identification of the risk. The project quality risk, progress risk, economic risk and technical risk use analytic hierarchy process, establish index system, construct judgement matrix to carry on risk evaluation, get the weight of each specific risk event in the whole risk, provide reliable and true basis for controlling risk. The sixth part mainly is the basis of risk identification and evaluation in the previous article. The seventh part is the conclusion and the prospect for the project risk management. The results of this paper not only have important significance to the investment decision of the developers, but also expect to provide the research and practice of the risk management of similar real estate development projects in the future. On the basis of the characteristics of real estate and the strong uncertainty of the real estate, we should strengthen the awareness of risk prevention, improve the anti risk ability of the central project in the century of excellence, reduce the loss caused by the risk, improve the profitability and competitive ability of the project, and ensure the success of the project.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23;TU71

【参考文献】