微观视角下的中国产业空心化:经营收益和金融收益的互动机制

发布时间：2018-06-16 22:55

本文选题：产业空心化 + 财务报表重构　；参考：《复旦大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：产业空心化的现象于20世纪60年代发现自美国,相继在发达国家出现,是企业的实体资本迁移而造成制造业总量的绝对减少,受到国外国内受到学者的广泛关注。近年我国的实体经济中也出现了各种传统意义上产业空心化的迹象,并演化出虚拟化的新特征：即企业通过资本运作将筹集来的实体资本转投于房地产、金融等资产市场导致制造业总量的“相对减少”,体现了虚拟经济对于实体经济的冲击。目前对于国内产业空心化的研究很多,但大多是宏观角度的描述和定性研究。本文由上市公司财务数据的异常现象切入,从微观角度研究空心化的机制——基于企业的经营活动,研究代表实体经济的经营收益和代表虚拟经济的金融收益的相互影响方式。具体实施方面,以信息透明度较高的上市公司为样本,选取公司质量较高可以作为上市公司代表的沪深300指数为样本池。将样本公司2008年金融危机后共四年的年度财务报表数据应用到IASB(国际会计准则理事会)与FASB(美国财务会计准则委员会)于2008年提出财务报表重构理论框架下,将公司的利润表分解并重构为综合利润表,得到经营收益和金融收益数据。先构造出产业空心化程度的指标h,分别度量行业和产业层面空心化程度。然后用面板数据模型检验关于经营收益和金融收益之间互动关系的四个假设,分别用总体样本和分产业样本进行回归,进行实证分析。通过实证分析,本文得出以下结论：各产业的空心化程度正呈现递增趋势,且第二产业的空心化程度要大幅高于第三产业。空心化形成的机制有二：一为前一年公司在金融领域的投资发生亏损,影响到整个公司的生产能力和综合实力,导致当年的经营收益也相应减少,便形成空心化,二为上一年中公司在主业上经营得不理想,会将资源转向虚拟经济以寻求获利,这种情况也可能促成空心化的发生。第二产业公司体现出同样的规律,不同的是当期金融收益较高——虚拟经济环境较好时,公司会专注于金融项目的经营,忽略相对盈利较少的主业,导致空心化的发生；而第三产业经营收益与金融收益的互动关系显得不太明显,仅上期的经营收益对当期金融收益有较弱的负面影响。
[Abstract]:The phenomenon of industrial hollowing was discovered in the 1960s in the United States and appeared in developed countries one after another. It is the entity capital migration of enterprises that causes the absolute reduction of the total amount of manufacturing industry, which is widely concerned by foreign and domestic scholars. In recent years, there have been various signs of industrial hollowing in traditional sense in the real economy of our country, and the new characteristics of virtualization have evolved: that is, the enterprises transfer the real capital raised to real estate through the operation of capital. Financial and other asset markets lead to the "relative reduction" of the total manufacturing volume, which reflects the impact of the virtual economy on the real economy. At present, there are a lot of researches on the hollowing of domestic industry, but most of them are macroscopic description and qualitative research. From the abnormal phenomenon of financial data of listed companies, this paper studies the mechanism of hollowing from the microcosmic point of view-based on the business activities of enterprises, and studies the mutual influence ways of representing the operating income of the real economy and the financial income of the virtual economy. In the specific implementation aspect, taking the listed companies with high information transparency as the sample, the CSI 300 index, which can be taken as the representative of the listed companies, is selected as the sample pool. This paper applies the annual financial statement data of sample companies for four years after the 2008 financial crisis to the framework of financial statement reconfiguration theory proposed by IASB (International Accounting Standards Board) and FASB (Financial Accounting Standards Board) in 2008. The income statement of the company is decomposed and reconstructed into a comprehensive income statement, and the data of operating income and financial income are obtained. Firstly, the index of the degree of industrial hollowing is constructed to measure the degree of hollowing in industry and industry respectively. Then the panel data model is used to test the four hypotheses about the interaction between operating income and financial income. Through empirical analysis, this paper draws the following conclusions: the degree of hollowing of each industry is increasing, and the degree of hollowing of the secondary industry is much higher than that of the tertiary industry. There are two mechanisms for the formation of hollowing: one is that the previous year the company's investment in the financial field lost money, which affected the entire company's production capacity and comprehensive strength, resulting in a corresponding reduction in the operating income of that year, thus resulting in a hollowing out. The second is that in the last year the company did not do well in the main business, will turn resources to the virtual economy in search of profit, this situation may also contribute to the occurrence of emptiness. The second industry company embodies the same law, the difference is that when the current financial returns are higher-the virtual economic environment is better, the company will focus on the management of financial projects, ignoring the main business which is relatively less profitable, resulting in the occurrence of hollowing; However, the interactive relationship between tertiary industry operating income and financial income is not obvious, only the last operating income has a weak negative impact on the current financial income.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F279.2;F275;F832

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